US natgas futures fall over 8pc on lower demand, rising output

US natural gas futures for the most active month fell over 8% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a rise in output.

For the front-month, however, the contract was up over 21% to a three-week high due to the roll of the less expensive October future into the much more expensive November. That is the biggest one-day percentage gain for the front-month since 2009 when a similar October to November contract roll caused it to jump 31%.

On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for November delivery fell 23.4 cents, or 8.4%, from where the November contract traded on Monday to settle at $2.561 per million British thermal units, their highest since Sept. 4.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states rose to a one-week high of 86.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday from a four-month low of 84.4 bcfd last week.

With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 82.9 bcfd this week to 84.7 bcfd next week due to higher heating usage and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. That, however, is lower than Refinitiv forecast on Monday because higher gas prices were expected to cause some power generators to burn more coal and less gas to produce electricity.

The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants averaged 5.6 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in February as rising global gas prices prompted buyers to reverse some cargo cancellations.

Cameron LNG's export plant in Louisiana started taking in small amounts of gas over the past few days.