Pandemics, natural disasters and wars have a way of exposing fault lines and leaving a lasting legacy. So the world, still in the throes of Sars-Cov-II, is experiencing a time of upheaval. While it is too early to say if the displacement of one superpower by another will be hastened by this healthcare crisis of global reach, the flurry of diplomatic moves in recent months reflects an inevitability about it. Pakistan should take note.
The most perplexing question of the times is whether the US can still reclaim its leadership mantle. For those who have long admired the resilience of the American political system, the deepening political divides there must be a painful thing to watch. The bungled coronavirus crisis response by a president intent on gas-lighting the public has made things worse. And American failure weighs on global recovery.
Can the US heal if there is a break from Trump? It seems unlikely. Heading into a tough re-election battle, Trump is appealing to racial grievances, more than he did in 2016. That over 40 percent of electorate still stands by him doesn’t bode well for America returning to sanity even in case of a Trump defeat later this year. Besides, it isn’t a foregone conclusion yet that Trump is going home. While polls indicate Joe Biden with a solid lead, recall that even Hillary Clinton was beating Trump two months before the 2016 election.
On the other hand, China is undergoing a period of diplomatic fragility. The main Western grievance is that being the origin of the coronavirus, China could have done more to arrest the spread. And then there is criticism on human rights. But China is still in a strong position to change minds. It is still a global factory. And expect a bit of vaccine diplomacy doing the trick in 2021. If China pioneers a safe and efficacious vaccine and makes it accessible to wider world, it may generate a large swathe of goodwill.
Also note that China’s continued engagements with UN agencies like WHO as well as regional blocs like EU suggest that it is interested in preserving the multilateral order. That stance is sure to appeal countries that are on the way up on the basis of codified international rules. Even if Biden is elected US president, the diplomatic damage caused by Trump’s America First platform will take years to reverse. Besides, take note that Biden is also talking about bringing supply-chains home. The world, which had got used to American leadership, will be skeptical of an America that is looking out for itself at the cost of others.
Meanwhile, the newfound bonhomie between UAE and Israel shows that realpolitik, not ideology, will drive the Middle Eastern politics for some time to come. Reportedly, even the Saudi crown prince had plans to shake hands with Israel PM on a secret visit to DC, though the visit hat to be cancelled as details were leaked. In short, moral leadership is in short supply, and the freedoms for Palestine, or Kashmir for that matter, are nowhere prominent on the agenda.
Given the shifting sands overseas, Pakistan needs to reevaluate its core foreign policy objectives, or get stuck in a contradictory spiral. All relationships bring their own kinds of challenges, but sage minds need to firmly decide as to where at the intersection of economy, geopolitics and ideology do Pakistan’s core interests lie. It is still worth trying, but the delicate dance of balancing relations between China and US as two main benefactors may have already lost its rhythm.
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