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It is sensible not to put all your eggs in one basket or count your chicken before they are hatched. Also wise men do not waste their time solving the mystery of "what came first - the chicken or the egg?" Speaking of the eggs and the chicken a connoisseur told me that the eggs hatched under the loving warmth of a mother hen's lap produce better quality of poultry than the breed mass produced in the artificial heat of a hatchery. But why am I talking about eggs and chicken when the intention is to write about Wheat, Atta and Roti?
In Pakistan the most popular form of Roti is Tandoori-Naan. The vast majority prefer its substantial girth over the flat and feeble chapatti cooked over an inverted frying pan (Tawwa). The Bread baked in a bakery out of dough is for the rich and the sophisticated who ape the West to start their day with breakfast of toast, butter and marmalade.
Shrewd Zulfiqar Ali Bhuttu understood the need of our starving masses for Roti and gate-crashed to power riding the bandwagon of "Roti-Kapada-Makan". Once he was through the barrier of the ballots, he forgot all about it and pursued goals for personal glory. "Paki Pakkai Roti," a brainchild of his lieutenants, proved a gimmick and failed to take off as it was still born. It amounted to asking people to eat cake if bread was not available.
Armies march on their stomachs. Likewise people in poor countries want to fill their bellies before craving for a shirt on the body and roof over the head. It is, therefore, priority for all governments to ensure that 'Roti' is made available at affordable price. Wheat being the staple diet in our country, its production, pricing and distribution plays a crucial role in the art of governance.
In the early years, thanks to our agriculture economy, Pakistan faced no problem in meeting our needs. Fortunately with the rapidly multiplying population, crops too kept increasing in quantum defying Malthus theory that population increases in geometric progression and food production in arithmetic so as not to keep pace. Once in a while we had surplus to give us grandiose ideas of exports but often we have been importing to meet the deficit. However, for many years it has been possible to maintain the price of 'Atta' under Rs. 10 per kilo. Overall production of wheat has increased from 10 million to 17/18 million tonnes as against 20 million we need today to be comfortable.
This year due to irrigation water shortage, wheat production fell below expectation. There was nothing new about the shortage and the government arranged imports of 1.5 million tonnes from Australia. The consignment reached our port, it was tested, found deficient in the quality contracted for and was rejected. In regulating prices time is of the essence. The Food Ministry failed to take prompt measures to correct the situation causing panic in the market. The dealers, the stockists, the hoarders, the millers and the trade vultures took advantage to shoot up the price of Atta to all time high of Rs. 20 per kilo in some parts of Pakistan causing alarm, consternation and crisis.
With allegations and accusations flying left and right, the root cause - Australian consignment rejection - has become a scandal. The fact that the consignment rejected by us on the ground of being infected with virus, has been accepted by Indonesia, UAE and Sri Lanka and is being consumed, has raised doubts about laboratory tests conducted by us. It is questioned whether ulterior motives were involved for personal gain or to embarrass the government. The Food Minister has come out with an explanation but damage is done and the crisis is becoming a scandal.
Well fed Jamali, the Prime Minister, is touring abroad feasting with the hosts in Hong Kong, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand. President Musharraf's attention has been diverted to 'Kapda' (his uniform) instead of 'Roti' for the people. Food Minister Rind has been singled out to bear the brunt of all types of allegations coming thick and fast. Albeit our ever-ready and voluble Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has come to the rescue from abroad by issuing a statement that the government acted correctly to protect the health of the people as chapattis made out of the infected Australian wheat would have weakened instead of nourishing them. We maintain that the testing was done with the consent and in the presence of the representatives of suppliers in Australia, the contractor who imported the consignment and the relevant authorities of Pakistan and it was strictly in keeping with trade protocols. However, taking advantage of the controversy raging in Pakistan, the Government of Australia is tempted to take legal action for wrongful rejection.
Provision of "Roti-Kapda-Makan" is in nutshell all about Poverty Alleviation. All achievements in the field of macro-economy, strong rupee, low interests, swelling balance of payments and buoyant bourses mean nothing if 40% of the population lives below the subsistence level. BJP under Vajpayee was riding high on the economic miracles said to have been performed to raise the stature of India in the international community, but going by the exit polls in the ongoing elections, the party is deflated as the opposition is successfully exploiting the government's failure to address "Garibi Hatao." If Musharraf wants to survive, he would have to change his priorities. His grandiose programmes of mega dams are long-term projects which are non-starters in the background of provincial rivalries. The immediate need is to contain inflation and control the prices of essential items - specially eatables and Atta comes at the head of the list.
The present wheat crisis could have been easily avoided by better attention to procurement prices and prevailing upon the surplus Punjab to permit movement of wheat to deficient areas of NWFP and Sindh.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2004

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