Australia's barley crop is expected to fall about nine percent in the 2004/05 crop year, Australian Wheat Forecasters (AWF), said on Thursday.
The private grains forecaster said it expected a barley crop of 7.4 million tonnes in 2004/05 crop year to March 31, down from 8.1 million tonnes in the latest crop year.
First barley sowings for 2004/05 were expected to take place in north-west New South Wales and on the southern Darling Downs in Queensland state over the next week, AWF said in its first barley forecast for the new season.
Australia was likely to have a sizeable carryover of malting barley in 2004/05 after excellent growing conditions through 2003 in the major barley states of South Australia and Western Australia, it said.
This produced both big crops and higher proportions of malting quality barley, although the carryover was held by entities controlled by growers and was unlikely to depress malting barley prices, it said.
AWF said increased new crop barley production was expected in Queensland and northern New South Wales, with subsoil moisture already in place.
Southern NSW and Victoria were forecast to produce greater tonnages than last year, although they so far lacked sufficient soil moisture to give growers confidence in their sowing intentions.
With forward price indicators stronger for Australian Premium White grade wheat than for malting barley, growers had firmer sowing plans for wheat than for barley, AWF said.
AWF is forecasting lower barley production this season from both South Australia and Western Australia, compared with last year, because of expected average rainfall this season. An extended 2003 growing season in both states was unlikely to be repeated this year, AWF said.
AWF's barley forecast compares with a forecast of 8.0 million tonnes by government unit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).
AWF last week forecast that Australia would produce a record 27.5 million tonne wheat crop in 2004/05 to smash the previous record of 25 million tonnes, produced last season.
This compared with a forecast of 21.9 million tonnes by ABARE. Australia is the world's largest barley exporter, excluding the 15-member European Union.
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