China produced 430.6 million tonnes of grain in 2003, the lowest harvest in 13 years and 5.8 percent less than in 2002, official figures released on Tuesday showed.
The data from the state statistical bureau could mean the country would have to import more farm products such as wheat this year to replenish depleted silos and check firm domestic food prices, analysts said.
China, which reaped 457 million tonnes in 2002, has set a grain output target of 455 million tonnes for 2004.
But analysts said this would be tough to achieve because of serious weather damage to its major winter wheat crop, to be harvested in May.
"Natural disasters, especially drought in Henan and areas in south China, have hurt agricultural development over the past year," the statistical bureau's head, Li Deshui, told reporters.
Beijing had adopted measures to increase grain acreage and farmers' incomes this year to boost output, according to bureau spokesman Yao Jingyuan.
But farmers are still turning to more profitable crops than wheat or corn. "Although grain prices have firmed, they're still not high enough to motivate farmers.
For instance, some farmers in Henan province would rather plant cotton than wheat because it's more lucrative," said an analyst at a state-run grain think-tank.
China posted a record grain harvest in 1998 of 512 million tonnes, but output had stayed stubbornly below 500 million tonnes since 2000.
The government has been reaching into stocks to plug shortages. Grain stocks came to 250 million tonnes in 2002, but have since dropped to 150-200 million tonnes and are seen hitting 100 million tonnes soon, officials and analysts say.
Worries over whether existing grain supply can feed the country's 1.3 billion people have boosted domestic farm prices through much of 2003 the first year of price increases in six years, industry officials say.
The country, which had enjoyed grain surpluses over the past few years, would have to start importing more in 2004 in order to maintain a healthy level of stocks, analysts said.
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