At the tailpiece of one of our columns last year, we argued that the government should have the good sense of releasing provincial inflation with their full details, so at least the provincial governments and the citizens at large know what exactly is hitting them (See: Are donors driving inflation in Pakistan?, April 8, 2014). Turns out, we aren't the only ones thinking that way.
At the consultative workshop for CPI rebasing last week, a near ruckus broke out as members from provincial statistics departments demanded that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) should prepare provincial inflation and release them too. PBSs response was clear: as a federal body, we don't have the mandate for it.
This column will not claim to know whether the PBS really doesn't have the mandate for it, or whether they will not share it on account of some political reasons.
However, if the PBS is really not mandated to prepare and release province level data then how is that it does so for a host of other key statistics such as population census, labour force surveys, measurement of social and living standards, household expenditure and so forth. Is it so that the PBS has the mandate to prepare and share provincial data pertaining to infant mortality, literacy etc but not provincial inflation and provincial economic output/GDP.
So then one starts wondering that perhaps the reason why the PBS doesn't share provincial data is because it doesn't have it. But then Shah Nawaz Jaskani, additional director at Sindh Bureau of Statistics, debunks that notion. Jaskani asserts that the PBS has the regional accounts data; its just that it does not want to share it with the provinces nor does it publish it for general public use.
Some PBS sources give the excuse that the provinces will not agree with the provincial GDP and inflation, and therefore the PBS doesn't really want to publish them. However, that matter can be resolved if the provinces are made to sit together and agree on a methodology within the broader internationally accepted guidelines.
Besides, one of the powers and the functions of the PBS, according to General Statistics (Reorganization) Act 2011, are "to develop national statistical standards and promote standardization of concepts and definitions conforming to international standards and to ensure observance by government departments, both Federal and Provincial, research and statutory bodies." That should settle the matter of standardization of regional accounts.
In today's devolved Pakistan, the provinces need to know how their economy is faring. In order to do that, they need to know their provincial GDP, for which, and for a host of other reasons, provincial CPI is paramount.
However, provinces cannot prepare this data on their own because of two main reasons. First, it is the PBS that can best weed out methodological issues in the calculation of regional GDP, because it already has the national level data.
And second, its better to have PBS prepare provincial accounts under a pre-agreed methodology than the provinces doing it for themselves, because the latter will have even more reliability issues. Bear in mind that regional GDP should ideally sum up to national GDP, which would be difficult if each province were to calculate its own GDP.
At the inaugural session of PBSs workshop for CPI rebasing, the honourable Ishaq Dar said his vision is to depoliticise economic statistics. But whether he has the ability, the courage and the will to fight political compulsions and task the PBS to release provincial CPI and GDP is another matter.
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