The decade of 5G

With the onset of a new decade, how long will it take before the next-generation mobile network technology (5G) is introduced on a large scale? Beyond faster data transfers and higher bandwidths, the real promise of 5G resides in the 24/7 connectivity of smart devices, automotive solutions, industrial use cases, and smart infrastructure, thus making lifestyles, production and services more digitized.

Thus far, the development of the next connectivity standard seems to be concentrated mostly in B2B use-cases instead of B2C in the developed world. This is natural, as large-scale deployments that make commercial sense will take time. Also, 5G is dependent on short-range frequencies that will require many smaller towers and hence more investment from telecom companies on their network up-gradation.

On the equipment side, it doesn’t help that the US-China trade war has caught Huawei in the middle. There are concerns that by shutting out the leading 5G equipment supplier from the North America and European markets, the world may see two different kinds of 5G standards. One set of standards will come from the likes of Ericson and Nokia in Europe and the other from Chinese giants like Huawei.

And yet, despite facing widespread opposition from Western governments, Huawei, which is one of China’s tech jewels, has a clear lead. Thus far, it has reportedly signed more than 50 contracts worldwide. The wall of resistance is cracking, as evidenced in Huawei’s recent tie-up with Germany’s Telefonica. Huawei is also set to roll in the Indian market after getting a regulatory nod in the past week.

As for devices, 5G-enabled smartphones will be required to work on the future 5G networks, and it will be some time before affordable handsets are launched. Thus far, Chinese manufacturers Huawei and One-Plus and South Korea’s Samsung have commercially launched 5G phones. Qualcomm, the American semi-conductor company, is at the center of innovation to get the market towards mid-scale phones.

As the 5G equipment and device development process somewhat slowed down in 2019 and operators world-over focus on existing deployments, it seems that full-scale 5G rollout may have to wait beyond 2025. It is expected by industry associations that only a third of all mobile subscriptions will be 5G-enabled by 2025. Thus far, localized deployments have mostly taken place in advanced markets.

For instance, 5G deployments on small scale have been reported in in South Korea (SK Telecom), United States (Sprint and AT&T), China (China Mobile), and UAE (Etisalat). Along with Australia and Canada, India is set to start testing 5G in 2020 as its telecoms regulator will soon allocate 5G-specific spectrum frequency to the market. Japan has also invited bids for local 5G network deployment in January.

In Pakistan, the regulator has already allowed 5G testing and development. But don’t expect 5G to be available anytime soon. Besides, 4G services are yet to be scaled to a reasonable degree by operators who feel financially squeezed. The regulator suggested recently that 5G deployments will be here in 5 years. Given the way things are, fresh 5G investments on a large scale may have to wait until 2025. But that won’t be out of character as other developing countries may also likely have a late and slow uptake.