Farm office FranceAgriMer on Thursday raised its forecast for total French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2015/16 season to 6.0 million tonnes, from 5.8 million estimated last month, the highest level in 17 years. The higher estimate was mainly due to a cut in forecast exports outside the European Union - now pegged at 11.0 million tonnes against 11.3 million last month - due to lower sales prospects in Egypt where shipments have been delayed by confusion over import terms.
"The cut from last month is clearly due to the Egyptian imbroglio," Olivia Le Lamer, head of FranceAgriMer's grain unit, said, declining to quantify the potential loss in French sales to the world's largest wheat buyer. According to a Reuters calculation, French soft wheat exports outside the bloc stood at 6.4 million tonnes by mid-February. The marketing season ends on June 30.
Including sales to other EU members, which FranceAgriMer kept almost unchanged at 7.1 million tonnes, French wheat exports were forecast to reach 18.75 million tonnes this season, down 6.2 percent on 2014/15. Le Lamer said the final stock could be lower than the 6 million tonnes currently expected if there is a pick-up in exports or in farmer selling, which has been particularly low this season as growers hoped for a rebound in prices.
In other cereals, the office trimmed its projection for barley stocks to 1.75 million tonnes from 2.1 million forecast last month due to higher exports outside the EU. "The Chinese market has slowed down but other destinations like Saudi Arabia have taken over," Le Lamer said. Within the European Union, France is facing strong competition from British barley due to a weaker pound, it said. The bird flu outbreak in southwestern France, which prompted the government to order a freeze in duck and geese output until early May, will lead to a fall in the use of some 100,000 tonnes of maize in animal feed. A drop in prices should allow this volume to find a market in Spain, it said.
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