Modi's gamble

In the wake of Narendra Modi's invitation to his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif to his oath-taking ceremony followed by an exchange of presents between their families the option of bilateral mechanism as an efficient tool to resolve contentious issues between their countries had come to the fore. In his thumping electoral victory Pakistan saw an Indian leader who could make bold policy decisions. Then there was this Lahore Declaration, signed by prime ministers Atal Behari Vajpayee and Nawaz Sharif, reiterating their determination to implement the Simla Agreement, which binds the two countries to 'settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations'. So even when Modi won election flashing the Hindutva card Pakistan saw in him an Indian leader who appeared to be the best option under the circumstances to activate bilateral contacts. Sooner than later the two governments were talking to each other, clinching an agreement that their foreign secretaries would meet in Islamabad to revive the moribund Composite Dialogue - never mind if not under the same rubric. What a miscalculation! A fanatic Hindu, who built his political career on anti-Islam narratives, whose hands are stained with the blood of over two thousand Muslims of Gujarat, who was denied US visit visa for his communal mindset, who is committed to reconstructing a Hindu temple on the razed Babri mosque, and whose election manifesto promised swallowing Kashmir hook, line, and sinker was expected to deliver on ticklish interstate issues. But Pakistan didn't have to live this make-believe bonhomie far long. The Modi government refused to join the secretary-level talks, only because the Pakistan high commissioner in New Delhi had met the Kashmiri leaders, previously a routine affair and this time all the more relevant as the two countries were going to discuss Kashmir wherein their input would have been helpful. Talk everything under the sun but not Kashmir - that's what Narendra Modi seemed to have conveyed to Nawaz Sharif; it was nothing but a veto which left the Pakistani leadership with no option but to remind the United Nations of its commitment to secure the people of Kashmir their right of self-determination.
And if, that has angered India and has exposed Narendra Modi's game plan to swallow Kashmir, let it be so. And if India thinks it can bully Pakistan by raising tensions on the Line of Control and the Working Boundary, it is sadly mistaken. Pakistan has the requisite military potential, both conventional and nuclear, and a firm national resolve to thwart the Modi government's nefarious designs. When it comes to fighting the enemy, the size of population of a country and its vastness is of little consequence or significance. Even when the Pakistani forces are engaged on the western border against terrorist networks, the country's border with India is fully protected, and there is a clear understanding that neutralizing aggression on it is the top priority - even at the cost of relenting on anti-terrorism campaign. Yes, Pakistan is a nuclear-weapon state - courtesy India's leading role in nuclearising South Asia - and will be willing to exercise its nuclear option under a threat of wider aggression. But this is not what Pakistan wants; what it wants is that the international community should get involved and force India to give peace a chance by bringing the nuclear rivals to the negotiating table. Insofar as violence on the LoC and the WB is concerned, the Pakistani forces are taking care of it - though their retaliatory fire is greatly restricted by the consideration that on the other side there is civilian population. But it is the violence on the international border that has the potential to trigger a wider conflict between Pakistan and India. Therefore, even as India succeeds in keeping the UN Security Council immobilized on Kashmir the world body is duty-bound to de-escalate tension on the Working Boundary. Being indifferent to this would suggest that jingoism on the part of Modi's India sits well with the United Nations. On the other hand, the Nawaz Sharif government has kept its cool, even at the cost of being branded coward. On Wednesday, the legislators across the national political divide condemned India's defence minister Arun Jaitley's threat of 'more pain', and asked the government to pay back in the same coin. The fact is that India's continuing aggression is testing the patience of Pakistanis - no wonder then some of them have talked of a nuclear war in South Asia.