World Bank's recent report, "cleaning Pakistan's Air" has drawn our attention to the deteriorating environmental conditions in Pakistan and especially about air pollution. More than 20,000 deaths are reportedly caused every year by environmental reasons. Motorization is on the rise which is a principal source of air pollution in Pakistan. It is in this background of continuous bad news that this article has been written to explore and explain some approaches like electrification of urban transport.
Transport uses about 60-70% of world oil, or around 20 billion barrels per year. Electric vehicles, especially when powered by renewable energy can offset energy declines and keep our air cleaner. In Pakistan also, out of a 20 million tons of oil consumption, 50% is consumed by the transport sector, and 40% by power sector. Oil and gas both are getting expensive, while electricity can be produced by cheaper energy sources. In short to medium term, it appears that due to cost and as well as environmental reasons, automotive would switch to Electrical Vehicles in a major way.
What is an electric vehicle; simply speaking, instead of an IC Engine, it has an electric motor (60 kW for cars and 150 kW for buses); and instead of a fuel tank containing petrol or diesel, it has a big battery (26 kWh for cars and 200-300 kWh for buses). By comparison, the capacity of battery in conventional cars is hardly 1 kWh and is called lead acid battery. Instead of filling the fuel tank at petrol stations, an electric vehicle is charged usually during night or off-use time. It can take 10-20 minutes for charging in a fast charge system that will be offered by Electric Pumps of the future. Alternatively, one could change at home through inexpensive but slow chargers which may require 4-6 hours to fully charge a battery. It is the battery issue, which has delayed the arrival of EVs, otherwise electric motors of all types and capabilities are there now for more than three decades. Imagine 25-40 conventional batteries to be housed in the car. That was impossible without the new battery technology of Lithium Ion, which has a very good volumetric efficiency ie, it can give several times much more power per unit volume. There is no gear or transmission in a conventional style. It is almost an automatic car. Electric Motors accelerate much faster than the I.C. engines without steps and stages in a continuous way. Automotive control electronics comes more natural and compatible with EVs than the petrol vehicles. EVs electronic systems are more versatile and reliable and can be interfaced with devices like smart phones having apps that may maintain all kinds of records and even contain on-board or remote diagnostics.
Fuel cost (electricity consumption) in Electric Vehicles (EVs) is 25-33% of the Petrol cost. However, EVs are expensive. Nissan Leaf, an EV Sedan, is being marketed in the US at a price of 35000 USD after availing a subsidy of 7000 USD. EVs are today popular among rich environmentalists who can afford to buy cars usually priced between 50 to 100,000 USD. Saving on fuel cost is not their priority; fad and improving climate is their preoccupation. Even in the US normal middle classes are not expected to go for EVs in the near future, unless and until EV prices go down significantly, which may take another five years. The same applies with even higher intensity in Pakistan which means that there may be a small niche market aimed at the rich.
However, there appears to be a significant prospect of EVs in public transportation. Underground tubes are already electrical. Diesel buses and coaches appear to be the prime candidates for EVs. In city urban transport, unlike long haul trucks transport, is a short range activity, of say a 30-50 kms round trip. EVs due to the prevailing capacity, size and weight constraints of the on-board storage batteries, have to be recharged every 200 kms or so. For Bus operators, fuel cost is a major issue. CAPEX is an issue only so far as it affects total cost of doing business. Bus operators can get finances from Banks, and personal savings and affordability are rarely a factor.
A diesel bus on the average and typically consumes 0.5 Liters per km. For a daily 300 km activity, this would mean a fuel cost of 5 Million Rupees per year. An EV Bus typically consumes 1 kWh per km on the average, actual may be influenced by many factors such as no of passengers, speed, stops etc. This would mean a fuel cost of 12 Rs per km (as opposed to more than 50 Rs per km for Diesel buses) resulting in an annual fuel cost of Rs 1.2 million - an annual saving of Rs 3.8 million. For a five-year period, the saving would be of 19 million rupees. There are additional savings in maintenance and overhaul; diesel engines may require overhaul and rebuilding for every 100-150,000 kms, which means less than a year of running. Price of EVs are in an evolutionary stage. One would expect that in near future, there may be a residual price differential of Rs 10 million.
Chinese company BYD (the $38 billion Chinese conglomerate that makes everything from electric cars to LED lighting to solar panels) appears to be the market leader, as it has had the highest number of demonstration projects in Europe and North America. Volvo, an established market leader in buses, has also developed a hybrid EV Bus; Volvo runs principally as EV, but has a small Diesel Engine for ride-through purposes, to be used as and when there may be shortage of on-board electrical charge. Hino has developed EV coaches/minibus.
Sooner or later, all major vehicle producers would join the EV bandwagon, more so in Diesel Bus sector than the cars segment. There is another interesting phenomenon of open-source EVs ala IT business. Tesla, a manufacturer of solar PV and EV electrical package of EVs is offering (or considering to do so) its EV technology and know-how to large and small Auto companies just as Microsoft did with its Windows and Google with its Android. This has a potential of promoting smaller and unknown companies in the domain of EVs surviving against big names of Toyota, Ford and Honda.
BYD has recently had its demo project concluded in Canada with following certified results; At the heart of the BYD bus is a Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries (324 kWh) with an on-board charger which charges full in 4 hours and an electric motor of 150 KW; electricity consumption without AC 1.3 kWh per kms and 1.5 kWh with AC. Expectations are that the consumption would stabilise at 0.75 kWh per km; a range of 250 kms per day. Operating cost of BYD-EV has been estimated to be 0.20-0.30 USD per Mile as opposed to Diesel Bus cost of 1.3 USD per Mile in New York. Similarly BYD has developed its ê-Taxi (a spacious vehicle combination of a Sedan and a SUV), with a 90 KW motor, having a range of 300 kms and a top speed of 87 mph.e6 Taxis work 24 hours with a 40 minutes fast charging time in between.
In India, Mahindra has bought out Rava4 -an EV manufacturer, and has launched e20 an EV Sedan at a price of IRs 490,000 (8330 USD). BYD has launched a project in collaboration with local government in Bangalore. New Delhi suffers from chronic air pollution problem and has mandated the use of CNG in buses for this reason. In near future, New Delhi is expected to launch EV Buses as well as are other major cities of India expected to do so. The 2008 Beijing Olympics used a fleet of 50 electric buses, which have a range of 130 km (81 mi) with the air conditioning on. They use Lithium-ion batteries, and consume about 1 kW·h/mi (0.62 kW·h/km; 2.2 MJ/km). In August 2012, a contract for 700 electric bus delivery has been completed between BYD and Israeli transit company Dan Bus, at a market price of USD 330,000 per bus. Even Bhutan has entered into agreement with Nissan for EV supplies priced at 50% of the US market price.
In addition to high oil prices, IC engines, especially the ones used in automotive sector, are very inefficient ie converting only 25 percent of fuel into useful power and rest being exhausted as fumes. As opposed to power sector where combined cycle efficiencies are approaching 55%. Oil is also transported on trucks and lorries which also have low efficiencies of 25% and losses of 75%. As compared to this, electricity is transported with a loss of 5-10%.
On a broader scale, Pakistan Railways still remain Diesel based, costing money and spreading pollution. Pakistan introduced Electric Train in 1960s on Multan-Khanewal link. All cables and copper has been stolen and sold and nothing has happened in this respect. By comparison, India has electrified more than 22000 kms of track, which carries two-thirds of goods and one-half of the passenger traffic. Karachi Circular Rail (KCR) was similarly installed in 1960s and became dysfunctional after 1980s. KCR is being revived under JICA technical and financial assistance. Lahore's Metrobus may be a candidate for EVs or trolley buses or trams (taking electricity from cables). Reportedly, a lot of subsidy is to be given by the provincial government towards diesel cost. There is controversy these days about the justification of subway in Lahore. Consideration may be given for alternative systems such as surface electric trams and buses.
With rising efficiencies in electrical generation sector and diversity of sources, use of electricity in transport sector is expected to grow. What should we do, when we are already suffering from electricity crisis? It is not an easy question. Some argue that unless power generation increases in a major way, it may not be advisable to encourage this; oil can be imported easily, electricity cannot be imported, generally speaking. Others argue that pollution problem on the roads in major cities is getting worse, although CNG has managed to control some degree of pollution. Additionally, the economy argument is very much there to be able to establish a cheap public transport system. With CNG gone due to influx of expensive LNG and electricity crisis ameliorated, there would emerge justification of Electrical Vehicles. In the mean time, EV itself would get into its maturity cycle. These are the short and simple answers that may not replace the need of a formal study that may have to be commissioned by GOP and its relevant agencies like Planning Commission, Ministry of Industries and Engineering Development Board. One has to go with the flow and would not like to be caught unaware and unprepared when everybody else is on EV. It is highly unlikely, though the conventional automotive would be totally replaced by EVs and others anytime soon. Donkey carts are still useful in Pakistan and US Army still maintains a brigade of Mules for certain applications and emergencies.
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