SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit fresh lows on Wednesday as more upbeat economic news out of the US focused investors’ attention on the US dollar.
The Aussie dipped a further 0.1% to a 13-month low of $0.6325, having already lost 0.5% overnight. There is some support around $0.6315, before a low from October 2023 at $0.6271.
The kiwi dollar reached a two-year trough at $0.5747 , after also losing 0.5% the previous session.
Support lies around $0.5744 and $0.5624, ahead of its 2022 low of $0.5512.
In Australia, recent disappointing data led the Labor government on Wednesday to downgrade its forecast for economic growth this fiscal year to a sub-par 1.75%.
Over in the United States, figures on retail sales showed the consumer still in good health and the Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow estimate running at an annualised 3.1% for this quarter.
The data is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish cut in interest rates later on Wednesday by projecting less easing for 2025 and a higher terminal rate.
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Futures are not fully priced for a further cut until June next year.
Meanwhile in Australia, investors have become more confident the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start trimming its 4.35% cash rate as early as February.
A quarter-point cut is now priced at 70%, with rates seen at 3.60% by year end.
Much will depend on fourth-quarter consumer price figures due in late January, however.
Analysts generally assume the key trimmed mean measure would have to rise by 0.6% or less - the smallest quarterly increase since mid-2021 - to justify a rate cut.
“We expect trimmed mean inflation of 0.7% q/q, broadly in line with the RBA’s expectations,” said Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ.
“Further, we expect services inflation to tick up to 4.8%, the highest rate in over a year.”
“This, along with the resilience in the labour market, suggests the RBA will hold off on cutting the cash rate until May.”
Data out last week showed employment beating forecasts in November and a shock drop in the jobless rate to an eight-month low of 3.9%.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already slashed its cash rate by 125 basis points to 4.25%, and markets are pricing an 87% chance it will ease by a further 50 basis points in February.
Rates are seen reaching 3.25% or lower by the end of 2025.
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