AIRLINK 175.65 Decreased By ▼ -1.91 (-1.08%)
BOP 11.01 Decreased By ▼ -0.04 (-0.36%)
CNERGY 8.33 Increased By ▲ 0.16 (1.96%)
FCCL 47.10 Decreased By ▼ -0.22 (-0.46%)
FFL 16.02 Decreased By ▼ -0.10 (-0.62%)
FLYNG 27.02 Decreased By ▼ -0.33 (-1.21%)
HUBC 142.45 Decreased By ▼ -4.46 (-3.04%)
HUMNL 13.37 Decreased By ▼ -0.14 (-1.04%)
KEL 4.45 Decreased By ▼ -0.05 (-1.11%)
KOSM 5.91 No Change ▼ 0.00 (0%)
MLCF 61.50 Decreased By ▼ -0.52 (-0.84%)
OGDC 226.31 Decreased By ▼ -8.37 (-3.57%)
PACE 5.80 No Change ▼ 0.00 (0%)
PAEL 44.79 Decreased By ▼ -1.62 (-3.49%)
PIAHCLA 17.93 Decreased By ▼ -0.19 (-1.05%)
PIBTL 10.45 Decreased By ▼ -0.12 (-1.14%)
POWER 12.10 Increased By ▲ 0.11 (0.92%)
PPL 185.99 Decreased By ▼ -5.81 (-3.03%)
PRL 37.25 Decreased By ▼ -0.07 (-0.19%)
PTC 24.14 Increased By ▲ 0.94 (4.05%)
SEARL 99.95 Decreased By ▼ -0.94 (-0.93%)
SSGC 38.40 Decreased By ▼ -1.31 (-3.3%)
SYM 14.89 Decreased By ▼ -0.14 (-0.93%)
TELE 7.75 Decreased By ▼ -0.09 (-1.15%)
TPLP 11.10 Decreased By ▼ -0.01 (-0.09%)
TRG 66.00 Decreased By ▼ -1.29 (-1.92%)
WAVESAPP 11.00 Decreased By ▼ -0.35 (-3.08%)
WTL 1.36 No Change ▼ 0.00 (0%)
YOUW 3.82 Increased By ▲ 0.05 (1.33%)
BR100 12,826 Increased By 19.4 (0.15%)
BR30 38,861 Decreased By -842.2 (-2.12%)
KSE100 118,792 Decreased By -146.5 (-0.12%)
KSE30 36,779 Increased By 22.6 (0.06%)
Markets

Finance Ministry projects Pakistan’s headline inflation at 8-9% in September, October

  • Economy indicates positive developments during first two months of FY2025, says Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for September
Published September 27, 2024
Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters

Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to decelerate further in the next two months (September-October) and may hover around 8-9%, the Finance Division projected on Friday.

In its ‘Monthly Economic Update and Outlook’, the ministry said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has receded to single digits, lowest in 34 months in August 2024, and anticipated to decrease further in the near term.

In August, CPI was recorded at 9.6% on year-on-year (YoY) basis compared to 27.4% in the same month last year, according to the outlook report.

Meanwhile, in its monthly report, the Finance ministry said Pakistan’s economy indicated positive developments during the first two months of FY2025.

“Inflation has dropped to single digits, industrial output has increased, and large exporting sectors have witnessed growth, reflecting an optimistic outlook for exports.

The current account deficit contracted, while the fiscal sector remained resilient, mainly attributed to prudent measures,” the report stated.

“This trajectory is expected to continue in the coming months.”

Large-scale manufacturing

Following a phase of decline, the ministry said large-scale manufacturing (LSM) was regaining its footing and major exporting sectors showed readiness to scale up production.

LSM output increased by 2.4% in July 2024, rebounding from a contraction of 5.4% in July 2023, reflecting “improved market conditions and policy support”.

During the period, according to the report, 14 out of 22 sectors witnessed positive growth which included, textile, food, beverages, wearing apparel, coke and petroleum products, chemicals, automobiles and paper & board.

Textile, with the largest weight in LSM (18.2), turned positive after 24 months.

“This recovery is expected to be bolstered by a favorable external environment, a stable exchange rate, and declining inflationary pressures,” it said.

Agriculture

For agriculture, the outlook of Kharif 2024 production, weather being critical factor will pave the way for productivity, the ministry said.

During FY2025 (July-August), imports of agricultural machinery and implements increased by 105.6% to $17.6 million compared to the same period last year, as per the report.

Aurangzeb says agriculture, IT key economic drivers 839

“This growing commitment to mechanisation and innovation in farming practices is expected to enhance yield in coming months.”

Urea offtake during Kharif 2024 (Apr-Aug) recorded at 2,381 thousand tonnes, 13.6% less than Kharif 2023 and DAP offtake decreased by 21.9% compared to Kharif2023.

“The decline may be attributed to late sowing of Kharif crops as a result of climate change, lower prices of wheat and reduction in cotton acreage,” the report said.

External front

On the external front, the finance ministry expects that exports and imports will observe an increase in momentum.

In September 2024, the exports are likely to remain within range of $2.5-3.0 billion, imports $4.5-5.0 billion and workers’ remittances $2.7-3.2 billion.

Comments

Comments are closed.

KU Sep 27, 2024 08:21pm
Monthly economic update is only for show n tell, ground realities n people's economic basket tells a sorrow tale, but who cares when mere common people are suffering.
thumb_up Recommended (0)
S Sep 27, 2024 09:21pm
Wishing all the best for the country's economic recovery. However, Save the masses/ and majority population by limiting reduction in policy rates and controlling inflation. The markets reflect growth in inflation. Strange!
thumb_up Recommended (0)