MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Friday as traders gauge the pullback in odds of another 50-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, while recent gains in the yuan are expected to keep Asian currencies supported.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 83.65-83.66 to the US dollar compared with 83.6425 on Thursday.
Asian currencies were mixed with the Indonesian rupiah up 0.5%, while the offshore Chinese yuan pared gains after a slew of economic stimulus measures drove the currency to an over 16-month high of 6.96.
The rupee will be “supported on the margins” by the yuan’s rise and is likely to hover between 83.50 and 83.80 in the near term, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.
The local currency’s failure to rise above its key resistance level at 83.50 has trimmed positive bias on the currency, the trader added. Month-end dollar bids could pressure the rupee.
The dollar index was up 0.1% at 100.7 in Asia hours after a host of US data released on Thursday indicated a relatively healthy economy. US jobless claims declined to a four-month low while gross domestic product grew at an unrevised 3% in the April-June quarter.
Odds of another large rate reduction by the Fed in November declined to 50% after the data was released, down from near 60% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Indian rupee awaits Powell’s comments, US inflation after failure to breach 83.50/USD
US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data, due later in the day, will be in focus for cues on the path of policy rates.
Markets are leaning towards “a 50bp Fed rate cut at the November meeting, but upcoming data and key risk events such as the US elections will test their resolve to front-load cuts,” Societe Generale said in a note.
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