TOKYO: The US dollar was trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders digested less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and looked ahead to fresh economic data from the United States.
Attention was also on inflation data out of China in the Asian morning amid concerns about deflation in the world’s second-largest economy.
Overnight, several Fed speakers gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy in the United States soon or to move quickly once they do.
“For the moment, policy remains well positioned, as we carefully assess the evolving data and outlook,” Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, adding that she believes it will be “appropriate to begin easing policy restraint later this year.”
The market is pricing in an 18.5% chance the Fed will begin to cut rates in March, down significantly from the start of the year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
Traders see a nearly 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May.
The greenback slipped overnight after rising above its 100-day moving average on Monday and Tuesday for the first time since late November, propelled by Friday’s surging US jobs data.
The dollar index, a measure of the US currency against six major peers, was last hovering around 103.77. Given the repricing in markets over the past month, the dollar around 104 “looks spot on,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
The dollar will need a fresh push to test resistance levels around 104.60 and 104.80, with the Consumer Price Index for January released on Feb. 13 the likely first opportunity, he added.
Dollar on defensive after pullback from nearly 3-month peak
The euro clung around $1.0775 per dollar, holding above its lowest level since Nov. 14 at $1.0722 hit on Tuesday. Sterling was mostly flat at $1.2631.
The Japanese yen, meanwhile, strengthened 0.07% versus the greenback at 148.05 before comments by the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor later in the day.
Elsewhere in Asia, traders awaited the latest consumer and producer price figures out of China on Thursday, which will show whether the economy is any closer to escaping the clutches of deflation.
Forecasts suggest mixed signals, with year-on-year consumer price deflation expected to have intensified in January but month-over-month prices up at the fastest pace in a year.
Annual producer price is forecasted to come in negative.
Still, “core inflation should continue to hold up amid stronger services demand, and new infrastructure-led spending,” said Wei Liang Chang, currency and credit strategist at DBS.
“We expect the Chinese authorities to favour maintaining stability in the yuan going into the Lunar New Year holidays, with dollar/onshore yuan likely to remain within the 7.18-7.22 range for now.”
The offshore Chinese yuan was down 0.11% to $7.2036 per dollar ahead of the data.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 0.51% to $44,416.00.
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