Earlier this week, BR Research noted that “the 2023-24kharif season might be the first time in history when cotton production in Sindh exceeds that in Punjab” (For more, read: “Cotton wither Punjab miracle?” published on Monday, November 06th, 2023). That claim wasn’t without substance. The current season is the only the second time in southern provincial history when cotton production is set to exceed 4 million bales (of 170kg) and might also prove to be a year of highest-ever production for the province.
But first, a recap of history. Although cotton production takes place across all the four provinces, provinces in the Indus plains – Sindh and Punjab - are together responsible for 97 percent of the area under cultivation and 98 percent of the total production. Of this, Punjab accounts for nearly three-fourths of the acreage, with provincial share ranging between 67 – 90 percent of total cultivation throughout country’s history.
Historically, Punjab’s lion share in cotton cultivation is attributable to the design of the Indus basin irrigation system (IBS) during the colonial Raj, which magnified after the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty in the sixties. The construction of mega-dams, flood control, and spread of canal-based irrigation enabled intensive farming in the basin. As access to round-the-year irrigation became common, more farmers intensified plantation of cash crops round the year, and cotton became a perfect fit for the two crop-based traditions, especially outside of the northern districts of the basin, which received less intense monsoon rains, and a longer high temperatures during the summer.
Key to cotton’s popularity was also the abundance of cheap labor and farmhands, especially in areas with larger landholdings. Although dependence on manual labor remained common till the turn of the century across all crops, cotton was the only cash crop where harvesting stretched across several months. Cotton is a high-investment crop, which demanded a disproportionate use of chemical fertilizers and pesticide sprays. Thus, the return from the crop could only be maximized if growers harvested several rounds, called picking. Therefore, the higher the abundance of labor, the cheaper the cost of picking cotton, the greater the return on investment for the producer.
As a rule of thumb, the average farm landholding size increases as you travel down the Indus. Larger landholding means fewer zamindars, but more haris (farmhands) per acre of land. All else held equal, this meant greater picking. Over time, as urbanization spread, farm labor became more expensive, which in part also explains the conversion of farmers away from cotton to single-harvest crops, especially in the now largely urbanized central Punjab regions.
Why is the context so important? Because historic datasets indicate that many of the cotton-dominated districts in the irrigated regions of Punjab yielded subpar productivity going back several decades, especially when compared to southern region. Although Sindh accounted for no more than one-fourth of the area under cotton cultivation historically, farmers in the province averaged 35 percent higher productivity than those in Punjab. And once cheap labor was no longer available, cotton simply stopped making for many landholders in Punjab.
And the current season has only made these differences most apparent when the cotton crop remained largely protected from other exogenous variables such as extreme weather or pests. Sindh, which accounts for only 26 percent of the cultivated area this year, will account for at least half of the crop output. According to BR Research’s estimates, yield per hectare in the southern province will average at least 1,150 kg per hectare, which is at least 2.5 times higher than the average for Punjab this year.
To contextualize this difference, consider that if the province were different countries, Sindh would rank number seventh in the world by yield, above even US! While Punjab would rank at number 40th, significantly below world average.
If this doesn’t put into perspective the claims of cotton revival in Punjab for policymakers, and whether it is truly the right choice for farmers in the province, then hard to say if anything will.
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