AGL 23.47 Decreased By ▼ -0.93 (-3.81%)
AIRLINK 106.11 Decreased By ▼ -3.18 (-2.91%)
BOP 5.17 Decreased By ▼ -0.12 (-2.27%)
CNERGY 3.66 Decreased By ▼ -0.01 (-0.27%)
DCL 7.80 Decreased By ▼ -0.20 (-2.5%)
DFML 44.19 Decreased By ▼ -0.11 (-0.25%)
DGKC 88.50 Decreased By ▼ -0.30 (-0.34%)
FCCL 21.75 Decreased By ▼ -0.24 (-1.09%)
FFBL 42.52 Increased By ▲ 0.24 (0.57%)
FFL 8.75 Decreased By ▼ -0.15 (-1.69%)
HUBC 147.80 Decreased By ▼ -3.90 (-2.57%)
HUMNL 10.25 Decreased By ▼ -0.10 (-0.97%)
KEL 4.34 Decreased By ▼ -0.11 (-2.47%)
KOSM 3.79 Decreased By ▼ -0.16 (-4.05%)
MLCF 36.40 Decreased By ▼ -0.20 (-0.55%)
NBP 49.30 Increased By ▲ 0.14 (0.28%)
OGDC 130.85 Decreased By ▼ -0.85 (-0.65%)
PAEL 25.95 Decreased By ▼ -0.36 (-1.37%)
PIBTL 6.05 Decreased By ▼ -0.02 (-0.33%)
PPL 114.55 Decreased By ▼ -0.90 (-0.78%)
PRL 22.60 Decreased By ▼ -0.07 (-0.31%)
PTC 12.37 Decreased By ▼ -0.13 (-1.04%)
SEARL 55.70 Decreased By ▼ -0.49 (-0.87%)
TELE 7.25 Decreased By ▼ -0.15 (-2.03%)
TOMCL 36.40 Decreased By ▼ -1.29 (-3.42%)
TPLP 7.95 Decreased By ▼ -0.39 (-4.68%)
TREET 15.29 Decreased By ▼ -0.04 (-0.26%)
TRG 56.70 Decreased By ▼ -3.26 (-5.44%)
UNITY 31.85 Decreased By ▼ -0.49 (-1.52%)
WTL 1.17 Decreased By ▼ -0.01 (-0.85%)
BR100 8,295 Decreased By -111.5 (-1.33%)
BR30 26,102 Decreased By -351.9 (-1.33%)
KSE100 78,469 Decreased By -927.7 (-1.17%)
KSE30 25,198 Decreased By -319.9 (-1.25%)
Business & Finance

Another brokerage house expects 200bps hike in key policy rate

  • Topline Securities also sees PKR/USD in inter-bank market to be in range of Rs320-340 by June 2024
Published September 8, 2023

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) could increase the key policy rate by 200 basis points (bps) in its upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on September 14, said a brokerage house.

Topline Securities, in its report released on Friday, said it expects the SBP to raise the key policy rate by 200bps to 24%. The key policy rate already stands at a record high of 22%.

“We expect an increase of 200bps, taking the rate to 24% in the upcoming MPC meeting,” said Topline.

It said that since the last MPC, major developments have taken place.

“These include: (1) Pakistan posted a current account deficit of $809 million in July 2023 after four consecutive months of surplus, (2) local fuel (petrol & diesel) prices have increased by around 19%, (3) international oil prices in US$ have risen by 6%, and (4) rupee has fallen by 6% against the US dollar,” it said, adding that the factors are likely to be considered by in the upcoming MPC.

As per the survey conducted by Topline, 54% of participants expect interest rates to increase by 200bps, while 18% of participants see an increase of up to 100bps in the policy rate.

Moreover, 12% see interest rates increase by 150bps, and 10% expect a 300bps increase, while the remaining foresee no change.

“We also believe that the SBP may revise their inflation targets upward from the previous range of 20-22% for FY24,” said Topline.

Responding to a query on PKR/USD parity outlook in the inter-bank market by Jun-2024, Topline shared that 38% of the participants anticipate PKR/USD parity to range in Rs320-340 by June 2024.

Around 25% expect it to be around Rs340-360 while 21% expect it to be around Rs300-320. On other hand, 12% expect it to be below Rs300, while 5% expect it to be above Rs360.

“We also expect PKR/USD in interbank market to be in range of Rs320-340 by Jun-2024,” said Topline.

Comments

Comments are closed.

Arif Sep 08, 2023 06:29pm
We need administrative actions and fiscal discipline to control inflation and not increase Interest rates .
thumb_up Recommended (0)