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LAHORE: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted slightly above normal rainfall in upper parts of the country throughout the month of July. Also, it has made forecasting of dust, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall at isolated places in Northern Punjab, Upper KP and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, Southern parts of the country comprising Sindh, Balochistan, particularly the coastal belt, are likely to receive one to two rainfall spells, during the forecast month.

According to the latest forecast, temperatures are likely to remain above normal nationwide, with significant higher than normal temperatures are expected in various areas of Gilgit-Baltistan and southwestern Balochistan.

Isolated extreme/point rainfall may leads to urban flooding in big cities and flash floods in hilly areas, it added.

The PMD officials said higher temperatures in mountainous areas may accelerate snowmelt in the Northern Areas, resulting in an increase in base flow in the Upper Indus basin along with chance of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

So far as the heat index (feel like temperature/apparent temperature) is concerned, it is expected to be higher than normal in major cities of the country.

They said there are many global (e.g., Tropical Pacific/Indian Ocean temperature anomalies) and regional (e.g., Balochistan heat low, Tibetan high pressure) climate phenomena which affects Pakistan monsoon rainfall and temperature variability.

Currently, the tropical sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is showing signs of warming, indicating the presence of the EI Nino phenomenon, which is in general negatively associated with the rainfall anomalies over Pakistan. This warming trend in the Pacific Ocean is expected to persist throughout the period from July-September 2023.

Simultaneously, the western Indian Ocean is also experiencing warming, while the eastern Indian Ocean is cooling, signifying the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is generally associated with slightly above normal monsoon rainfall over Pakistan. These IOD conditions are also projected to continue during the season.

According to Multi-Model Ensemble (10 global seasonal prediction models) predictions, most of the regions over Pakistan are expected to have normal monsoon rainfall. Upper Punjab, Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive slightly above-normal rainfall but within 5% departure from the normal, the PMD forecast said, while Sindh and southwestern parts of Balochistan are expected to receive normal to slightly below normal rainfall during the season.

According to the Multi-Model Ensemble prediction, the majority of regions across Pakistan are anticipated to have temperatures within normal range during the season. However, it is expected that the south western parts of Balochistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience above-normal temperatures.

Due to expected normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in North Punjab, AJK and KP, there is probability (60-70%) of increased risk of localized flooding (urban & flash flooding) in these areas.

This rainfall is also expected to contribute to replenishment of water reservoirs and ground water resources.

Due to expected normal to slightly below normal rainfall in central and south Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan, the cotton belt in Sindh and Punjab may face water stress as well as seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards in Sindh and Balochistan region may also encounter water deficiency.

Due to below-normal rainfall in southern parts of the country, drought conditions may emerge in the Sindh and Balochistan regions.

The north western parts of Balochistan may experience above normal temperature potentially affecting the agriculture and livestock in these areas.

The above-normal temperatures in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) regions may contribute to an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in those areas.

Due to expected normal to above-normal temperatures in Sindh, Balochistan, and lower Punjab, there is a possibility of heatwaves at isolated places in these region.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

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