US President Joe Biden’s offhand comment about Pakistan at a fundraiser in California last week has created a no-win situation for the hitherto-improving bilateral relations. Possessing “nuclear weapons without any cohesion,” Pakistan is “maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world,” as per Biden. It’s a diplomatic gaffe to say such a thing out loud, but as Biden himself admitted back in December 2018, “I am a gaffe machine, but my God what a wonderful thing compared to a guy who can’t tell the truth”.
Thanks to the pre-existing anti-American current in the society that has been sharpened by the ex-premier’s conspiracy narrative, folks were quick to take offense at Biden’s comment. One shouldn’t read too much into a single, unrelated statement in a broader, laid-back speech at a political event. But if one were to parse that statement, it is clear that the operative part of Biden’s statement was the ‘lack of cohesion in a nuclear Pakistan –not the security of its nuclear program – that allegedly made it a dangerous place.
Can one fault Biden (or his security team) to view Pakistan with such alarm? The past decade in general and the last six months in particular have made it clear that Pakistan is at war with itself. There is disunity all around, threatening the country’s democracy, economy, security, and integrity. Not getting along is one thing; it’s quite another when politicians brand each other traitors, when state institutions are perceived as openly partisan, and when ordinary folks become downcast and start relating with extremist religious parties. Polarization runs so high that even the unprecedented floods couldn’t bring the country together.
Therefore, once Pakistan’s elite is done taking umbrage at Biden’s blooper, will they please have a sit-down and do something about the real challenges threatening the country? Forced by the opposition’s hardline attitude, the PM and the FM have had to issue strong statements and diplomatic demarche over Biden’s comment. The Shehbaz-led government will find it difficult to take a measured approach going forward, even though a lot of time and energy has been invested in restoring these bilateral ties.
As for Biden’s comment, the timing could not have been more unfortunate, as Pakistan is battling a natural disaster on top of a macroeconomic crisis. Besides, Pakistani leadership recently visited the US and met top officials in NYC and DC. Since the new government took over in April, there has been a steady improvement in bilateral ties, thanks to repeated engagements at the highest level. Indian officials have expressed strong reservations over the improving ties, but US officials dismissed their concerns.
But now, Biden’s slip has made things complicated. There may be lingering issues in Biden’s mind that won’t go away. Having engaged with Pakistan for several decades (first as a Senator and later as Obama’s Vice President), Biden seems cynical about Pakistan taking a clear line when it comes to core US interests in this region and beyond. Memories of America’s botched Afghanistan withdrawal are also fresh. More recently, Biden failed to directly/specifically address Pakistan’s climate catastrophe in detail.
Therefore, it appears that Biden does not care much about Pakistan as he used to when he was Senator or Obama’s VP. (Back in October 2008, Senator Biden was awarded ‘Hilal-i-Pakistan’ for his support to Pakistan). Since ‘all politics is local,’ some observers have speculated that Biden was looking to appease the sizable Indian-American community ahead of difficult mid-term elections for his party next month. Maybe he was; maybe he wasn’t! But the damage has been done, setting back the relationship. Going forward, a lot of work is cut out for diplomats on both sides to make up for this unforced error.
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