Brent oil may retest a resistance at $95 per barrel, a break above which may lead to a gain into $96.04-$96.99 range. Signals are rather mixed, as the rise on Wednesday does not fit into the current wave structure of the uptrend from $87.24.
The trend could be well divided into five waves, a structure that marked a reversal of the trend. However, a high of $95.80 was touched on Wednesday, explicitly indicating an extension of the uptrend.
Probably, the only explanation to such an extension could be the progress of a wave c, which started at $91.05. This wave may travel to $96.17, its 61.8% projection level.
A study on the relation of this wave to the preceding wave “a” unfortunately could not offer convincing evidence that they are mathematically correlated.
The tricky part is that this wave could be at the same time labelled as a wave b, the second wave of an irregular flat.
To bulls, the pivotal support is at $93.01, a break below which could confirm the development of a flat pattern, which suggests a target of $90.17 or a much lower level.
Brent oil may retest support at $91.78
On the daily chart, market remains sideways below the lower trendline of a bearish triangle. The bounce from the Sept.
8 low still looks like a pullback towards the triangle, which suggests a target of $67.75.
A close below the Wednesday low of $91.93 could signal a completion of the pullback and the continuation of the downtrend.
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