South Korea's won, Thai baht leads Asia's FX higher as US yields dip

BENGALURU: The South Korean won and Thai baht led Asia's emerging currencies higher on Wednesday as US bond yields continued to retreat, easing pressure on the region's assets with stock markets edging ahead on global economic recovery hopes.

The won advanced 0.3% to its strongest level since late February as 10-year Treasury yields extended their declines and put the dollar on the backfoot.

The International Monetary Fund also raised its global growth outlook to 6% this year, from 5.5%, pointing largely to the US recovery and unprecedented public spending.

Those reflation hopes helped lift Philippine shares and others in the region, though only just, ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting, due later on Wednesday, as well as regional developments like India's policy meeting.

"We expect the broader thematic play of reflation, higher commodity prices, vaccine trade and sharper global economic rebound to play up again," Maybank analysts said.

Cautioning that they still do not expect the dollar to be in free fall as US yields remain elevated. "Fed officials need to show some signs of anxiety before UST yield and dollar can ease more meaningfully."

The Reserve Bank of India left rates unchanged, as widely expected, but with daily COVID-19 cases surging and states imposing restrictions, its commentary will be closely watched.

"The RBI is expected to be on hold today. But this is a forced, rather than desired hold," Mizuho Bank said in a client note.

The sharp rise in COVID-19 infections "threatens to dim the prospects of unfettered rebound in 2021" and "exacerbate the unevenness of the recovery," it added.

Stocks in Mumbai rose 0.4% ahead of the decision.

Investors have also been recalculating their expectations for when the Fed will tighten policy, a shift from a month and half of rising US bond yields and a surging dollar spurred by financial markets thinking the central bank will have to abandon its pledge due to a fast-recovering economy.

The Fed has pledged not to raise interest rates until 2024, while any indications of change could sap appetite for Asia's higher-yielding currency and bond markets.

South Korea, seen as a beneficiary from a global recovery given its reliance on trade, reported its highest number of new COVID-19 cases in three months, keeping a check on stock market gains.

Scotiabank says the broader market will play a more decisive role for the won in April, where typically South Korean companies pay dividends which tends to add upward pressure on the dollar/won.

The bank expects foreign investors to receive $10.4 billion from the nation's top 16 companies.