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Markets

US money markets bringing forward Fed rate hike bets to end-2022

  • Eurodollar futures contracts maturing in December 2022, were pricing in roughly 18 basis points worth of rate hikes by the end of next year.
  • Current pricing implies an almost 70% chance of such a move by end-2022, analysts said, up from the 52% chance priced a week ago.
22 Feb 2021

LONDON: Investors are bringing forward expectations for a rise in US interest rates, now seeing a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve move by late-2022, money market futures suggested on Monday.

Eurodollar futures contracts maturing in December 2022, were pricing in roughly 18 basis points worth of rate hikes by the end of next year. Current pricing implies an almost 70% chance of such a move by end-2022, analysts said, up from the 52% chance priced a week ago.

The move in US money markets, which fully discount a Fed rate hike in 2023, reflects a broader sell off in US Treasury markets on expectations that more US fiscal stimulus will lift economic growth and inflation.