The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic could be deadlier than the last

While Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have managed to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns are growing that the second wave of the pandemic could prove to be more deadly than the last, and if unchecked - could be devastating for South Asia as a whole.

The contrasting impact of the pandemic across South Asia is a striking example of how effective management of public activity by governments, through smart lockdowns or integrated shut-downs of targeted areas, can yield more effective results. The demographic structuring in the region remains similar, with densely packed urban clusters and expansive (yet sparsely populated) rural areas; which provides similar challenges pertaining to the provision of healthcare, infrastructure and basic services.

With a gargantuan population of nearly 1.4 billion people, India has approximately triple the combined population of Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, yet has more then 10 times as many cases; which speaks volumes about the handling of the pandemic in each country, in an effort to gain an insight into the merits and demerits of any subsequent policy intervention.

India, for instance, imposed a strict lockdown in March at the onset of the pandemic, which led to an unprecedented exodus of low-paid workers to their rural villages; many of whom were not only exposed to the virus, but took the virus with them to rural spaces often devoid of any significant public healthcare infrastructure - serving as the spark that lit the powder keg of the pandemic in the country.

Pakistan on the other hand, taking the subsequent economic damage caused by a large-scale lockdown into consideration, opted for a more localised approach; implementing track-and-trace systems and drawing on pre-existing health networks in place for the country's campaign against polio. This resulted in a significantly softened economic impact, while the government's poverty alleviation program supported the millions of impoverished and economically less-endowed masses through a period of economic stagnation.

The International Monetary Fund has projected that India's economy will contract by 10.4% this year, with less egregious economic downturns in Sri Lanka (-4.6%) and Pakistan (-0.4%); with Bangladesh being the only country expected to experience economic growth.

Daily infections have started to climb, with India leading with almost 44,000 daily cases, followed by 2500 in Pakistan, nearly 1500 in Bangladesh and 400 in Sri Lanka; with Bardan Jung Rana, the World Health Organization's representative in Bangladesh stating that “The pandemic is ongoing [...] without compliance towards protection measures we can face the scenario of other countries that are experiencing a second wave even more dangerous than the first".

With the second wave of the pandemic sweeping across the world, fueled partly by the onset of the winter season, there are significant risks that the region could face a more deadlier scourge of the virus; especially when vaccinations (despite making progress) are a far-flung solution to an immediate problem.