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Markets

UK GAS-Prices fall on oversupply, strong wind amid Norwegian worker strike

  • The day-ahead contract was 0.35 pence lower at 38.25 pence per therm by 0915 GMT.
Published October 9, 2020

LONDON: British wholesale gas prices were lower on Friday morning as strong wind power output curbed demand for gas from power plants and an oversupplied system muted the impact of an ongoing Norwegian worker strike.

The day-ahead contract was 0.35 pence lower at 38.25 pence per therm by 0915 GMT.

The weekend contract was down by 0.55 pence at 38.00 p/therm.

"The market is over-supplied and wind power is quite strong which is curbing gas-for-power demand," a gas trader said.

Norwegian flows to Britain were slightly up on the previous day at 87 million cubic metres (mcm), despite an oil and gas worker strike.

Oil firms and labour officials said they will meet with a state-appointed mediator on Friday in an attempt both sides hope will bring an end to a strike that threatens to cut Norway's oil and gas output by some 25pc.

Demand was forecast at 202 million cubic metres (mcm) and flows at 224 mcm/day, National Grid data shows.

UK Continental Shelf flows are nominated 6 mcm higher at 122 mcm as St Fergus Shell is flowing higher. However, Teeside PX is flowing at zero since yesterday afternoon with no notification for the reason, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

"Next week, Norweigan strikes will once again be key to price action resolution could see some derisking of near curve contracts.

Conversely, any negative escalation will be bullish and we could see the 40 p/therm handle tested," said Refinitiv head of gas research Wayne Bryan.

Peak wind generation is forecast at 10.1 gigawatts (GW) on Friday and the next day, out of total metered capacity of 18 GW, Elexon data shows.

Temperatures are forecast to rise to 12 degrees tomorrow before slumping below the seasonal norm for around seven days.

The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down by 0.23 euro at 13.72 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).

The price at which gas stays competitive in the power sector has been rising sharply in recent weeks on the back of rallying European coal prices, said analysts at Energy Aspects.

"We expect Nov-20 and Dec-20 API2 (coal futures) prices could rise to around $65/tonne, up from the month-ahead price of $56.70/tonne today, which would push the 5pc fuel switch trigger to 12.50 euros/MWh," they said.

The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was down 0.26 euro at 26.08 euros per tonne.

GAS

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