US natgas holds near 7-week low as output drop offsets fall in LNG exports

US natural gas futures held near a seven-week low on Tuesday as an expected drop in output to its lowest in two years offset a forecast decrease in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Front-month gas futures fell 0.1 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $1.834 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since July 31 for a second day in a row after the contract dropped over 10% in the prior session.

Traders said futures, which were down about 33% since hitting an eight-month high in late August, were mostly following the spot market lower.

Next-day gas at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana plunged to an 11-year low of $1.331 per mmBtu for Tuesday, putting it down almost 50% since it hit a nine-month high in late August.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states was on track to fall to 83.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Tuesday, its lowest since August 2018, as Tropical Storm Beta swirls along the Texas Coast. That drop occurred even though producers said they did not expect much damage from Beta.

With prices expected to remain relatively low, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 81.4 bcfd this week to 83.7 bcfd next week as electric generators burn more gas instead of coal to produce power. That, however, was below Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday due mostly to reduced LNG exports.

The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to slide to a two-week low of 3.9 bcfd on Tuesday from a four-month high of 7.9 bcfd last week due to planned maintenance at Dominion Energy Inc's Cove Point in Maryland, the continued outage at Cameron in Louisiana and as some vessels steer clear of Beta.