Uncertainty galore

A spate of statements from President General Pervez Musharraf and other leaders of the ruling coalition has caused an extraordinary increase in the state of confusion and uncertainty regarding the future of the country's present political system. For example, General Musharraf remarked the other day that he was in touch with Ms Benazir Bhutto regarding his efforts at national reconciliation and bringing the mainstream political parties on board in some power sharing arrangement. The very next day, however, the general struck an entirely different note in ruling out any role for either Benazir or Nawaz Sharif in the political set-up of the country.
Whether this latter statement represented second thoughts and a return to earlier formulations by General Musharraf himself or was the result of some expression of dismay by the PML(Q) leadership, particularly the Chaudhries, is not entirely clear. The latter surmise rests logically on the fact that any rapprochement with either or both of the two mainstream parties, the PPP(P) or PML(N), could spell the end of the Chaudhries' domination of the political landscape.
In the meantime, the ruling PML(Q) has been internally riven over the past few days by infighting characteristic of Muslim League culture. Chaudhry Shujaat and ex-prime minister Zafarullah Jamali seem to represent two different poles within the party, around which those with stakes in the present set-up and those aspiring to get a share or a bigger share are coalescing respectively.
Not unnaturally, such a public airing of differences within the top leadership of the PML(Q) touched off the usual round of speculations concerning the fate of the present government and the Assemblies. President Musharraf has, therefore, been constrained to issue a clarificatory statement to scotch any further rumours of an impending change in government, at the same time reiterating that the general elections will be held on schedule in 2007. In the process, the President also saw it fit to deny rumours of a postponement of the local bodies elections due in July.
First, let us examine President General Musharraf's statement regarding the exclusion from any political role of the two exiled leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. The electoral rules having been changed by this regime, neither is now eligible to become prime minister for a third term. That however, does not preclude in any way their standing for and becoming members of parliament in any future general election. After all, in neighbouring India, with firmer democratic traditions having taken root, Ms Sonia Gandhi is the head of the Congress party and an elected MP, but chose not to take up the crown of prime minister that was hers for the asking after India's last general election.
In a similar re-run, unless the government tries to bar Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif from standing in the next general election, theoretically there is nothing to prevent them winning seats in parliament. That leaves open the intriguing possibility that either could become the real power behind whoever they nominate as prime minister, a la Sonia Gandhi.
A political role, therefore, cannot be denied to either leader, even in the present dispensation. As it is, the media is full of reports that not only is the government talking to Benazir Bhutto, she has reportedly forwarded the names of her party's nominees as candidates for joining the present ruling coalition, with the possibility of one of her senior party leaders being offered the job of prime minister.
While the ruling PML(Q) appears to be disintegrating at the seams and talk is rife of the PPP(P) being inducted through some rapprochement between President General Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, the impending local bodies elections have thrown up their share of questions too. The government still insists on holding non-party local bodies elections, when it is a transparent fiction that this is possible. Every local bodies election under this dispensation too has been fought on party lines, even when the candidates have had to identify themselves through one or the other 'pseudonym' or symbol. The government can pretend all it likes that the local bodies elections have been and will be held on non-partisan lines in order not to import into this rung of the democratic edifice the fissures and divisions of national politics. But the ground reality is that political affiliation in local bodies elections exists and may not be as bad a thing as is imagined. At least identification with one or the other national party at the local bodies level is far better than reducing this contest to caste and biradari affiliations, with their narrow and prejudiced outlook.
It should not be forgotten that local bodies, being the lowest rung of the democratic structure, are the nurseries in which future political leaders receive their training and baptism of fire. The overriding imperative, if such future leaders are to emerge with a coherent vision of public service and integrity, is that the elections be, and be seen to be, fair and free. In this regard there are disturbing signs of preparations to swing the result in favour of the incumbent authorities.
The removal of nazims on the eve of the elections, four of whom have been restored against the government's orders by the Sindh High Court, and the wholesale transfers and postings of officials are not healthy signs on the touchstone of the government's intentions concerning the holding of fair and free local bodies elections. Only if the right of recall through a fair and free vote is available to the electorate will elected local bodies leaders fear the accountability to their constituents and face pressure to deliver, fairly and in conformity with the interests of their entire constituency in a non-partisan manner. Anything less would erode the very basis of the foundations of democratic culture of the system.
President General Pervez Musharraf will sooner rather than later have to realise that unless he allows room for all political forces, irrespective of his likes and dislikes, to participate fully in the political process, the system cannot settle down or be sustainable. Similarly, if the local bodies are not allowed to function as the political nurseries of a future national leadership, the system will continue to suffer from the flaws of a manipulated and underdeveloped democratic culture.