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Trading stride was observed towards the end of the week when buyers sensing world rate appeared in bullish mood turned to local markets to avoid as much loss as possible.
The pressure meanwhile mounted from the buyers side led to three pruning in spot rate seen on Friday at Rs 2800 without 15 percent ST and Rs 50 upcountry expenses.
WORLD SCENARIO: Turbulent week in international cotton seen ebb reaching so called limit high and low ended sharply higher after a long wait for such a development.
The week, May opened at 58.76 and closed at 61.99 and July opened at 60.69 closed at 62.36 cents a pound.
The Monday's trading in New York witnessed 8-month low on speculative and option-related sales, with weakened rain in large swathes of US cotton belt contributing to the sell-off.
Traders said that inability of the market to respond to bullish USDA export sales report at the end of the week speculators jittery.
Analysts said market players will now be waiting for weekly USDA crop condition report.
On Tuesday the same condition persisted leading to fresh 8-month low with more volatility seen in fibre contracts ahead of options expiration.
The third and fourth day's trading soared on steady speculative fund buying and the positive mood established by the weekly USDA export sales report.
Analysts said most of the speculative buying, was also aimed at tweaking positions in front of Friday's option expiration.
The last trading closed mixed on switch trade and options related dealings tied to options expiration to cap a week of volatile price swings.
Cotton dropped to an eight-month low on Monday, and then surged up its 3 cent limit following day.
Problems in China, Central Asia or the US would have the most impact on New York futures expert said in a report chartist peg support for the May cotton at 61.20 and 60.60 with resistance at 62 and 62.60 cents.
LOCAL TRADING: Pressure never ceased on ginners to accept world trend and reduce prices.
The ginners were wise to slash the spot rate on the very first trading day on Monday. But that seems to have not satisfied the spinners.
The trend began on Monday was not sustained. Ginners continued to be provoked to bring down prices however.
The week ended with at least three cuts in official rate to Rs 2800 until Friday.
On Monday, trading appeared good, around 6000 bales, for gainers showing that were prepared for cut if trading yielded outlet.
The second day trading turned low as only two fresh deals were reported. The official spot rate was give a day's rest to stay at Rs 2850.
In New York sharp fall was hurting the May and July contracts. On Wednesday, no fresh deals were furnished but lately lauded deals from DMR were lifted. The two deals were priced at Rs 2600.
The slow movement of trading was not only factor behind spinners attitude but overall shape of the textile sector was stated to be also behind it.
The spot rate was by Rs 25 to Rs 2825, might to due to dampening effect in New York. The fall was reported second day in a row.
The spinners have come down to calculated deals meaning that they are not fully happy with Rs 2825 hence the ginners took a step farther and cut another Rs 25 to Rs 2800 to mark the climax.
However, deals were not in level that could be said to be desirable. The threat hover came from New York where prices took to limit high.
The result was well exposed on Friday when increased pace was seen in buying, obvious result of signals from New York that prices were not to look back until the week-end. Nearly 5000 bales changed hands.
SATURDAY'S: Nearly 3000 bales of cotton changed hands on the weekend while spot rate was not revised. The buying support was attributed to rising prices in world rates.
TEXTILE MINISTRY: The call has been now dormant for sometime as reason is not always acceptable to the authorities.
This column however reminded about the body every now and then. Thank God need for a textile ministry has been dawned and Prime Minister Jamali is said to be seized of the issue and the same may be take a shape. Prime Minister has gone a step ahead from the simple call of a textile ministry.
He wants Punjab province should have a provincial level ministry. When these are going to take shape and start operation is somewhat hazy at the moment. But PM could be taken on face value.
Meanwhile proponents, leaders of the textile sector have started hailing the move. The Aptma chairman has taken sometime before making a comment on textile ministry has gone beyond that and have suggested that why Punjab and not Sindh too have one textile ministry. It is expected that the ideas about the federal ministry for textile sector and provinces of Sindh and Punjab will have their own ministries to monitor the work right from the day first seed of cotton crop is sown and textile exports stage.
At the moment any problem arises, leaves players confused and upset. How to get solution solved. So far commerce ministry and often finance ministry have played their role but do they not have their own vast field to tackle problems.
In the regard why leave. Balochistan without any caring nurse for it. It has been growing over one lakh bales absolutely contamination free cotton. At least a nursing home could be set apart to foster it to a blooming cotton producing and textile exporting province.
DISHONOURED CONTRACTS: The country was fighting its worries caused by the European Union 13.1 percent anti-dumping duty on Pak bed linen. Offer of review could be consoling but it does not guarantee whether outcome will definitely be in favour Pak bed-linen exporters.
Now yet another disturbing news in staring into yarn exporters' eyes that unspecified quantity of yarn has been simply refused to be honoured because in the meantime yarn prices have registered a sudden fall.
However much of the apprehension is premature, in the sense Pak exporters have taken alarm from what Indian had to face.
Sources who were quite well versed with the problem argued that unless exporters are informed the fear is nothing but whimsicality. Here in the report primary factor why contract was dishonoured was higher price.
These sources informed merely price factor is not as serious to yield nothing if talked and convinced the importers that such fluctuation is beyond their control.
What however, is to be genuinely concerned about is also experience of deficient cotton quality, short supply and poor implementation of contracts etc. The suppliers should be very careful once the confidence is shaken, is difficult hold back.
TAIL PIECE: The concern of the authorities to increase the production of cotton is understandable. The consumers today claim the consumption has increased from somewhere 90 lakh bales to around one crore 20 lakh bales. But how is not being given thorough exercise to make the pious wish a reality.
A recent report speaks about additional 0.6 million bales has been fixed over above the target of 2.4 million bales in Sindh. But the same story gives the constraints such as 10 percent water shortage in provincial irrigation network.
According to Irsa the shortage is to linger for ten more days. This fact will have negative impact on cotton sowing particularly in Tharparkar and Sanghar. Besides water good variety seed, pure pesticides and its proper use etc pre-requisite.
One can hope all the necessary inputs are made available to realise the dream of higher yield in Sindh.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2004

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