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Confidence data from the eurozone's biggest economies this week should help markets to decide if clouds gathering on Europe's horizon may turn stormy, and might give clues on whether interest rates will fall.
A raft of speaking engagements will give European Central Bank policymakers a chance to react to the data before a blackout ahead of their April 1 meeting on interest rates.
Business and consumer confidence indicators are due from Italy and consumer spending data from France. The week culminates on Friday in the German Ifo business sentiment index, a central fixture on the data diary.
No change is expected in the ECB's main interest rate, at 2.0 percent since last June, at the April 1 Council meeting.
But a softening of key eurozone data since the start of the year has heightened speculation the Council may contemplate easing credit in the months ahead.
Doubts are rising at the ECB about the weakness of private consumption, which is crucial to a healthy rebound. Consumers are worrying about their jobs and about their security, following the Madrid bombings, while the strong euro has dented business sentiment.
With data and ECB comments mixed, financial markets have raised their bets on a rate cut. The June Euribor futures contract this week priced in a 50 percent chance of a June rate cut, up from 20 percent last week.
ECB policymakers have plenty of chances to put their view.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to speak on Thursday while Bank of Spain Governor Jaime Caruana, a Council member, appears on Monday and ECB board member Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa has engagements on Monday and Friday.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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