Whether Toronto stocks are currently in the midst of an advance or a retreat is a matter of foggy debate, but when it comes to the longer-term outlook, most forecasters see only blue sky.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's previously red hot S&P/TSX composite index has stumbled in recent sessions, but the missteps have not been big enough to persuade market watchers the market will be anywhere but up by the end of the year.
The rise would build on last year's breakout, when the S&P/TSX rose 24.3 percent.
And after years of losing money on stocks, investors, like kids in a candy store, are ready and eager to buy.
Several analysts see the index rising as much as 5 percent, or 400 points, over the next few months.
"I'm pretty bullish on the market. I think the market has a very good possibility to continue to work its way higher," said Rick Hutcheon, chief investment officer at RKH Investments in Toronto.
"I don't think it's going to be the strap yourself in your seat and forget about it kind of market we've had in the past six months. There's going to be a greater need to be nimble."
After racing out of the blocks in 2004, the TSX has bobbed and weaved in recent sessions, hit by profit-taking and fears that the market had gotten ahead of itself.
The TSX ended the past week with a gain of just less than 1 percent. This followed an almost 3 percent rise for the first two weeks of the year on the back of gains of about 30 percent by technology stocks.
"I don't know if we'll turn around and go straight back up again, but the guys who are waiting for a 10-percent pullback can forget it," Hutcheon said.
In fact, several analysts see the index building on corporate results, which will pick up steam in the days ahead with earnings from heavyweights such as Nortel Networks Corp and Suncor Energy Inc, and racing to the 9,000-point level by the end of March.
This is far more optimistic than the results of a Reuters poll a month ago that predicted the TSX would be at the 8,800-point level by the end of 2004.
"My sense is that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines earning skinny rates of interest. People are getting a little antsy. They are foaming at the mouth a little bit here. They want to get their money working," Irwin Michael, a portfolio manager at ABC Funds in Toronto said.
In addition to expectations of strong earnings as a market mover this year, Michael and Hutcheon point out that 2004 is a US presidential election year and that such years are traditionally kind to markets.
This need to succeed among investors has prompted one decidedly skeptical analyst to throw in the towel on Nortel Networks, a former market darling fallen on hard times.
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