The ‘other exports’

Export receipts for 2MFY15 slid by about $460 million year-on-year. That may be negative, but not necessarily disconcerting. What is confusing, instead, is the reason behind that decline.
According to central bank data, the biggest hit in export receipts came from the so-called ‘other exports’, a category that saw a negative number of about $178 million in 2MFY15, resulting in a year-on-year differential of $357 million.
The SBP’s datasheet uploaded on its website defines ‘other exports’ as land-borne export, export of samples, export processing zone, outstanding export bills (made in earlier months) and refund & rebate, and goods procured on ports by carriers less freight on exports. But since that categorisation cannot explain the reasons why the number is reported in negative, BR Research sought some details from the central bank. Here is what they said:
SBP’s trade data is “based on the actual realisation of exports in foreign exchange transactions by banks. During a specific period, receipts by banks do not reflect all the export proceeds. ‘Other exports’ reflects all these entities, lags for coverage and timing, and is calculated on the basis of estimation.”
“The ‘other exports’ may be negative when outstanding exports realisation bills are more in a specific month than the amount of remaining components in the ‘other exports’ as occurred in 2MFY15. These cannot be attributed to the specific commodity group as estimated on overall basis,” the central bank added.
The complications of compiling widespread data are quite understandable. And therefore, one can’t really expect each and every little break-up of data. However, consider the fact that the negative $231 million in ‘other exports’ in August alone is biggest negative number since at least July 2003; the second biggest negative was $129 million in December 2009. The number is significant even if one irons out the data and takes quarterly averages instead.
One hopes that this is only a data anomaly. But if it becomes a trend, then the central bank would do well to take a look at it.

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Exports break-up (as per BOP)

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$ (mn)                                     2MFY14     2MFY15       Diff

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Food group                                    610        595        -15

Textile group                               2,337      2,262        -75

Petroleum group                               159        162          3

Other manufacture                             780        764        -16

All others                                    235        231         -4

A- Total export receipts through banks      4,121      4,013       -108

B - Freight on export                          90         86         -5

C - Export receipts banks (A minus B)       4,030      3,927       -103

D - Other exports                             179       -178       -357

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Total export as per BOP (C+D)               4,210      3,749       -460

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Source: SBP