US natgas output, demand to fall in 2020, 2021 due coronavirus

US natural gas production and demand will drop in 2020 and 2021 from record highs last year as coronavirus lockdowns cut economic activity, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 90.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 87.91 bcfd in 2021 from an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019.

It also projected gas consumption would fall to 83.41 bcfd in 2020 and 79.37 bcfd in 2021, from a record 85.15 bcfd in 2019.

That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand has fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.

EIA's projections for 2020 in December were lower than its November forecasts of 90.99 bcfd for supply and 83.68 bcfd for demand.

The agency forecast US liquefied natural gas exports would reach 6.53 bcfd in 2020 and 8.50 bcfd in 2021, up from a record 4.98 bcfd in 2019. That is higher than its November forecast of 6.40 bcfd in 2020 and 8.41 bcfd in 2021.

EIA projected US coal production will fall 26% to 521 million short tons in 2020, its lowest since 1964, before rising to 624 million short tons in 2021 as power plants burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices.

EIA projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will fall to 4.597 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1985. Emissions were 5.146 billion tonnes in 2019, which was the lowest since 2017. It projected emissions would rise to 4.881 billion tonnes in 2021 as power generators burn more coal.