OTTAWA: Voter fatigue with Canada's ruling Conservatives and signs of stress within the government are putting Prime Minister Stephen Harper under pressure to freshen up his team and policies as the telegenic son of Pierre Trudeau starts snapping at his heels.
Even though the election is 30 months away in October 2015 the next few months will be a critical time for Harper, given mounting evidence in opinion polls that the Conservatives risk losing power after what would be nearly a decade in office.
A different government would likely raise corporate taxes and step up environmental controls, with costs to the energy and mining firms that lead Canada's growth.
A string of polls in the last two months put support for the Conservatives between 29 and 32 percent, barely enough to keep them in power with an unstable minority government. The party, in power since 2006, won a majority in the May 2011 election with 39.6 percent of the vote.
"I don't think you can underestimate probably the internal fatigue of the government," said pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research. The likely Conservative response: A restating of priorities, including: a balanced budget, then tax cuts, and a cabinet reshuffle.
That would give Harper the chance to bring in new younger ministers, and bring more women into the cabinet. Harper said last year that he planned big cabinet changes in mid-2013, and an aide said the plan remained on track.
The biggest external political threat comes from the Liberals, who have governed Canada more than any other party, but who sank to a distant third with less than 19 percent of the vote in 2011, behind the left-leaning New Democrats (NDP).
The Liberals are banking on the possible re-emergence of Trudeaumania, the voter excitement of 1968 when Pierre Elliott Trudeau became Liberal prime minister on a wave of flower power. Trudeau's son Justin is likely to be elected Liberal leader on April 14, and polls show that helping the party enormously.
A Forum Research poll this month said they would win 40 percent of votes with Trudeau in charge, and perhaps a majority of seats. An Ipsos Reid poll on Thursday also had Trudeau Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, but by just one point.
Karl Belanger, principal secretary to NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, brushed off the threat from its rivals on the left. "The Liberals will pick their seventh leader in nine years," he said.
"We will let them sort themselves out, the NDP is focused on the Conservatives." Conservative strategists play down the opinion polls, noting how far away the next election is. They acknowledge Trudeau's charisma, but stress his inexperience.
Trudeau has banked on presenting a message of hope, much like US President Barack Obama, and has sought to make a virtue of the fact that in many areas he does not have detailed policies, insisting that he will first listen to Canadians.
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