Campaigns are heating up; the PMLN is desperately cutting ribbons of unfinished projects to tick mark their performance. On the flip, PTI has released its 100 day agenda, if the party comes to the power. The PTI leaders seem confident as the wind seems to be blowing favourably for Khan.
The plan is written by the PTI policy unit which is headed by former Mckinsey partner. Don’t get too excited as the same firm has been instrumental in planning for Shahbaz’s Punjab speed. And the “Framework of Economic Growth” by PPP government had help of the same consultancy firm.
PMLN performance in the past five years is that the outgoing government has delivered hard infrastructure - megawatts, motorways and metros. But simply adding megawatts do not address the issues of theft and governance of DISCOs. The making of roads does not make traffic and transportation efficient without rules to drive vehicles on it and the list goes on.
The PTI agenda talks on softer issues with governance on the top. The 100 days agenda consists of six themes - transform governance, strengthening the federation, revitalize economic growth, uplift agriculture and conserve water, revolutionize social services, and ensure Pakistan national security.
In transforming governance; the idea is to build institutions and devolve the government to towns and villages. Yes, it is of utmost importance, and the problem is known to all; the political forces work against the tide of such reforms. The PTI’s fair chance of coming in election is hinged upon “electables’ joining the party.
The electables spend tens of millions of rupees in the bid to win elections. The question is will the national assembly members let go of the grip of power in their respective constituencies to counselors. On institutions; the biggest problem is political patronage. The norm is that electables reward their workers by government employment or have other forms of contractual arrangement. Can Imran do otherwise?
The 100-day agenda talked of civil service reforms. The rhetoric is old as the case of reforms was first presented by Dr Ishrat in 1900s; but to no vain. Reforming can bring wrath of government machinery on the sitting government which could be capitalized by opposition to cripple day to day affairs. Can Imran afford this?
The second theme is of strengthening the federation. These are good and doable; a better approach to this could be to do a Provincial Finance Commission. The way NFC resulted in higher spending on health and education; PFCs can overcome the issues of poverty. Transforming Karachi is important as the engine of growth has been severely neglected in the last decade; a better approach could be to devolve the government to city level, with strong federal support on the lines of 2001-08.
Theme three is where the meat is. But it has more questions than answers. How will the PTI arrange finances to revitalize the economic growth? What is the game plan of Asad Umar to create two million jobs per year in next five years? How would 5 million housing units be financed - it requires Rs10 trillion at just construction cost of Rs2 million per house.
How can you lower energy prices without massively subsidizing the electricity and gas distribution companies? What about clearing circular debt? How can the PSE be reformed without injecting massive equity; and without laying off unproductive employees? How will the proposed Wealth Fund be financed?
The revival of economy is imperative; and the immediate need is to arrange $8-10 billion external funding. What is the game plan? Where is it written in first 100 days agenda? If the country goes back to IMF; how will economic revitalization plan work? The ground reality is the federal government revenues share is not enough to service debt, defence spending and serving pension. On average, 109 percent of fiscal revenues spend on these three heads every year after 7th NFC award. What magic wand does the PTI have to reverse the equation?
Agriculture is the hidden jewel of Pakistan and there is nothing more pressing than the need to conserve water. The plans they have are mostly synced with current regime thinking. But the federal government does not have resources to subsidize agri inputs- the agriculture income tax is a provincial subject; subsidy should be a provincial subject too. And on water, nothing is possible without coordination of provinces and federal government.
Theme 5 is the need of the hour. One credit goes to PTI as no one else is more committed to the social issues; especially on environment and green growth. But all these issues are devolved to provinces unless PTI gets power in provinces too; out of net negative federal fiscal kitty( after subtracting debt servicing, defence and pension), the center simply cannot do this all.
Here comes the problem for anyone coming to power. The political polarity of provinces has increased in the past two decades. It is not easy to get them all on one table and work on unified reforms for the country. The spirit of PTI agenda is great; but it should be followed by plans of strengthening inter-government coordinating institutions. Last but not the least is the theme is on ensuring national security. It will be intriguing to see how the PTI, if in power, aligns its national security and foreign policy agenda with military establishment.
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