Pak growth rate to reach average 5.9pc: WB Report

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank (WB), in its recent report, has predicted that Pakistan economic growth would reach at an average 5.9 percent a year over the medium term on the back of continued robust domestic consumption, rising investment, and a recovery in exports.

“In Pakistan, growth is forecast to pick up to 5.5 percent in FY2017/18, and reach at an average 5.9 percent a year over the medium term on the back of continued robust domestic consumption, rising investment, and a recovery in exports,” the report said.

In its January 2018 Global Economic Prospects, the bank projected that Pakistan’s GDP growth rate will be 5.5 per cent and 5.8pc for 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively.

The report says that growth continued to accelerate in FY2016-17 (July-June) to 5.3 percent, somewhat below the government’s target of 5.7 percent as industrial sector growth was slower than expected. Activity was strong in construction and services, and there was a recovery in agricultural production with a return of normal monsoon rains.

In the first half of FY2017-18, activity has continued to expand, driven by robust domestic demand supported by strong credit growth and investment projects related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Meanwhile, the bank in its report has predicted that the growth in South Asian region would accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2018 from an estimated 6.5 percent in 2017.

Consumption is expected to stay strong, exports are anticipated to recover, and investment is on track to revive as a result of policy reforms and infrastructure upgrades.

Setbacks to reform efforts, natural disasters, or an upswing in global financial volatility could slow growth.

The global economic growth would edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018 after a much stronger-than-expected 2017, as the recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade continues, and as commodity-exporting developing economies benefit from firming commodity prices.

However, this is largely seen as a short-term upswing. Over the longer term, slowing potential growth—a measure of how fast an economy can expand when labor and capital are fully employed—puts at risk gains in improving living standards and reducing poverty around the world, the World Bank warns in its January 2018 Global Economic Prospects.

Growth in advanced economies is expected to moderate slightly to 2.2 percent in 2018, as central banks gradually remove their post-crisis accommodation and as an upturn in investment levels off.

Growth in emerging market and developing economies as a whole is projected to strengthen to 4.5 percent in 2018, as activity in commodity exporters continues to recover.