Iran election 2020

The conservatives have secured an absolute majority in Iran's 2020 general election, delivering a severe blow to liberal pro-West forces inside and their supporters outside the country. In the 290-seat parliament or Majlis, the conservatives won 219 seats, the reformists 20 and independents 35. Eleven seats are set to be contested in the second round while five are reserved for the minorities, including the Jewish community. In the capital city, Tehran, all 30 seats were bagged by the conservatives - unlike the last election in 2016 when reformists took as many as 26 seats. Of course, as compared to earlier parliamentary elections the turnout was the lowest ever at 42.6 percent - in Tehran it was 25.4 down from average 50 percent - as against 2016 when countrywide it exceeded 60 percent; it was the lowest turnout since 1979. A low participation was widely forecast not only because the qualification vetting watchdog the Guardian Council had disqualified about half of the 16,000 candidates, mostly moderates and reformists, but also for mishandling of the Ukrainian passenger jet crash; it was disappointing nevertheless. If the fast-spreading coronavirus in Iran also restricted voters there is no indication yet. But what appears to be coming now is the revival of the Ahmadinejad era which was successfully wrapped up by the moderates led by President Hassan Rouhani. Given that Rouhani has still a year and some months to remain in office and the capital city's majority vote-getter Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf winner is likely to be the speaker of upcoming Majlis, the former is expected to face tough time in law-making.

Iranian parliament, the Majlis, mostly acts as a mechanism to legislate plans and programmes initiated by Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council. Its only mentionable act is adoption of the nuclear deal, formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Not only has US President Trump further whittled down the importance of the parliament by walking out of the pact, he has also undermined the moderates' political clout. Another cause that tends to justify the conservatives' hardline is the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani by the US. It has revived the Iranians' nationalistic élan that was surrendering considerable space to the moderates over the last few years. With quite a few electable reformers and moderates out of the electoral race and nuclear-triggered anti-Iran US sanctions in place the upcoming parliament would be left with no option but to rejuvenate the country's nuclear programme. In that background, whether you like it or not, Iran's return to Ahmadinejad's times is now a strong possibility. The excitement in certain circles over low turnout is somehow misplaced. In the recent presidential election in Afghanistan, for example, the turnout was as low as 12 percent but the world hailed it as a 'new dawn' for the Afghans. Although Iran is far more democratic than many in its neighbourhood who receive generous patronage of the United States, the record low turnout unfortunately gives birth to an impression that huge numbers had perhaps decided to ignore governing establishment's call for unity in the face of growing US belligerence against the Islamic republic.