The Chinese dream

The Present-day political entity of China was born of people's revolution in the middle of the 20th Century. It would be interesting to map out its first century and project its shape and place in 2050. The history of Chinese civilisation grew in parallel to the Middle Eastern and European civilisations with limited contact except some trade on animals back over the Silk Road that still carries the footprints of history. China was a pioneer in many epoch creating inventions like paper, printing technique, gun powder, etc that transformed life for ever; it also introduced to the world the institution of civil service or bureaucracy. It produced sages like Confucius whose wisdom still continues to light the path to success in myriad areas of life. Any old civilisation like the Chinese is bound to go through lows and highs of history.
The period from 1850 to 1950 was one such low. The people were buried under the foreign-induced drug delusion and were directionless under a decadent dynasty. They became a vanquished land as the British and then the Japanese occupied them and tried to marginalise them further. They fell to their abyss and then came the all-time revolutionary who tried to pull them by his bootstrap up the abyss. Thus was born the present day China in 1949. It had nothing that did not matter but everything that did. They had the spirit, the pluck, the tenacity to face and surmount the challenges that had bedevilled them in the past and above all revolutionary leadership that could overwhelm any hurdle in their way to become a vibrant modern state. They were backed by age-old wisdom imprinted on their genetic heritage. Leadership was what they needed and Chairman Mao followed by the whole chain of political leadership to the present time has seen them recover, stabilise, rise and excel to a point of global leadership in a short spell of about 65 years! At one time the world was awash with fear as to who would feed the most numerous and impoverished nation on earth. But, today the world looks to them to continue to provide it the float and momentum for economic growth and prosperity. If China stumbles the world jitters and takes a nose-dive. It is the largest trading nation in the world. It is the second largest economy with a potential to continue to grow stronger on the same trajectory! Energy consumption correlates with wealth generation and they are the largest energy-consuming country in the world. Having nearly matured their manufacturing economy, that has obvious bounds, they are now embarking on innovations, knowledge based economy and connectivity - geographical, economic, financial, technological and human which are not bounded and can provide another trajectory to new economic heights by 2050.
As we stand today, the US is the most predominant power - military, economic, diplomatic, technological and above all knowledge! The US in a way rules the world based on its own mind and liking. It has been intervening anywhere and everywhere for wrong or right to give the world affairs its own twist and turn. How would the world leadership change by 2050 is linked with how would China rise in political, military, economic and diplomatic power. It is not too difficult to forecast the Chinese trajectory in next 35 years with the hindsight of its last 35 years. China will indeed become much bigger than the US in many ways. It will be the largest economy, the largest military, the largest diplomatic power, the largest trading nation and the most connected nation in the region and indeed in the world.
There are two areas in which China would face challenge in comparison with the US - knowledge and knowledge bridge ie English language. America rides the crest of global pre-eminence on the basis of knowledge that is churned out by its world famous schools, universities and research centres. Although it may not be impossible for China to climb the knowledge ladder to overtake the US, first they would have to overwhelm the language barrier. English language is the language of evolving knowledge and technology and for China to absorb the growing body of knowledge and take a lead in generating new knowledge they would have to be equally proficient in English as in Mandarin. After circumventing the language barrier they would have to raise in vertical dimension the quality of education and research. The period up to 2050 might not be enough to accomplish the leadership in knowledge but the Chinese have established their own intrinsic time-lines that have been paling the global standards.
Let us look at two scenarios: firstly, that China closes the knowledge gap by 2050 in which case it will climb the world leadership summit and the world would set their bearing looking to Beijing. China would be the unambiguous world leader. It would be the good fortune of the mankind if it leads the world to the common benefit of humanity and not follow the pattern of acrimony of zones of influence and domination pursued by earlier super powers.
Secondly, that China does not overtake the US in creation of knowledge that breeds innovation, technology and knowledge economy by 2050, China would be still be an overwhelming contending global power capable of offering a containing and wisening influence on the US. It is reasonable to foresee the world would be led not by China or the US but by UN in this scenario. This itself will have a sea change in the world towards peace and non-interference.
It needs to be kept in mind that China would neither become the predominant sole power nor overwhelming contending power unless it steers clear of conflicts and in the process it is bound to develop an ingrained culture that will go into its bones to uphold peace, non-interference, dialogue and coexistence. Will the world not be a different place if the predominant power believed in the attributes of peace and prosperity? The journey from now to 2050 would be quite challenging for China, it is very likely to be drawn into conflicts before it assumes formidable stature. Look at the growing hotspots close to the Chinese belly in to South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, its vulnerable western region or possibly the global strategic game-play in the bordering Mongolia. China needs unfettered freedom of navigation in the disputed Sea and is bound not to curtail the US freedom of navigation either, however, it will not compromise on its territorial integrity. In that context. It will be a great challenge to her commitment to peace and none-interference to steer clear of even the forced conflicts.
China is the largest trading partner of the US and has over three trillion dollars investment into the US treasury assets. It is in China's self interest to see American economy grow and remain solvent. China would have to stay ahead of the US in the game of nations and strategic thinking and continue to charm the troubles infested world to avoid open conflicts for sustaining its trajectory of economic growth and development.
What could be a barometer to predict the Chinese rise, that the observers could keep some pulse on? The quality of Chinese educational centres, innovation of Chinese technology houses, commercialisation and operationalisation of the knowledge economy and promotion and protection of intellectual property would serve as useful indicators.
There is a glaring model for a case reference, that of the USA. At the onset of the 20th Century European powers and the USSR were the nodes of global power. All of them were within the contiguous land mass that served as the checker board of influence and dominance. They were locked in inter bedded tensions and feuds and were unable to stay clear of the conflicts and destructive wars. They were bound to dissipate in the intractable quagmire. There was however a distant emerging economy that was far removed from the hotspot but could continue to thrive in serving the feuding markets with huge exports. The US emerged as the pre-dominant power in 1950 and assumed the multifarious leadership of the globe. The USSR remained the only challenge, however, the constraints of centrally managed economy and non-commercial style of public spending led to its downfall and the US became the sole superpower around 1980. Although the US did not remain insulated from the world wars and other international conflicts yet its secure continental land mass never came under any serious threat and despite its engagements in distant conflicts it was able to maintain its trajectory of economic and diplomatic rise.
Since China is not far removed from the ensuing hotspots, any break of hostilities in the region will sap Chinese energies and stall its projected rise. In essence China would have to go all out for leadership in knowledge and play tight-rope walking in avoiding armed conflicts. Both these are daunting challenges but seen the backdrop of 35 years of Chinese rise from 1980 to 2015, it may not be so removed to predict the same for the next 35 years to 2050. China would have to learn from the experience of the sole super power that jumping into conflicts far and wide has caused her more harm than good in its global standing. If China overtook the US by 2050, the American propensity to jumping into hostilities without adequate homework on exit strategies would also decrease.
There could however be a new factor that could change the game in American favour. In global power USA rides the crest of science and technology that ushers in schools, universities, institutes, think-tanks and vibrant private sector. But the power created by knowledge is managed by the section of Americans who have little or no direct part in creating the power base.
The game could still change if those who create power base also had a role in managing it. Similarly America can reinforce the practice of welcoming bright students and teachers from all over offering tuition grants and financial assistance to reinforce its leadership of knowledge and technology. It would most interesting to see how the two super powers play out in staking their leadership in knowledge and technology in the intervening 35 years to 2050!
There is another regional factor that has a potential of dissipating China in a regional conflict with India. The latter too is maintaining an economic growth that promises to enable it to control the endemic poverty and social and political marginalisation of sections of its society. Both countries would have to avoid conflict and stay the hitherto course of economic growth and play the Chinese principles of peace, non-interference and coexistence in the region.
If China is able to climb knowledge summit and stayed clear of hostilities it could emerge as the undisputed global leader by 2050.
There is another relevant factor of choice that could give impetus to Chinese rise on knowledge ladder. China could also open its doors and hearts and minds to bright foreign students and teachers from abroad to mimic the melting pot of Knowledge as it happened in America a half century earlier. Offering tuition grants and scholarships to foreign students would be a small price for the mammoth gains.
Facing a growing shortage of younger workforce China has adjusted the one-child policy introduced in 1985 and has eased it to two-child policy from 2016. Its population is forecast to peak at 1.45 billion in 2050 and achieve a population balance thereafter. The new 2-child policy would provide additional work force of younger people about twenty years down the time from 2035 onward. The issue of lower proportion of younger population could however be possibly mitigated by Robotic Revolution and intelligent machines. The demographic make-up is not likely to hold China back from the projected rise!