Nigeria's government will probably give in to calls to devalue its naira currency by September, a Reuters poll taken over the past week indicated, as a shortage of dollars reveals deeper problems in its sluggish economy. The currency has been trapped between 197.00 and 199.00 per dollar since February last year, when the government pegged the exchange rate to stop the currency from falling and introduced capital controls.
But a median of analyst forecasts for the naira show the currency breaking out of that narrow band to trade at 230.00 against the dollar in six months and then at 244.50 in 12 months. Cobus de Hart at NKC African Economics said he expects a devaluation towards the end of the second quarter or early in the third, as the effects on the real economy of a lack of foreign exchange become increasingly apparent.
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