No one expected the anti-Islamic State coalition's meeting in Munich last Friday to be a game changer in the Syrian imbroglio, but it did surprise quite a few when it succeeded in clinching a plan that there should be ceasefire effective from the coming week. But that was not to be - the plan was stillborn. As the week wore on doubts were loudly expressed about its viability to trigger a ceasefire, and by none so openly as by some of the principal participants of the Munich meeting. The plan is rather ambitious, wondered the US Secretary of State John Kerry, and to his Russian counterpart Sergie Lavrov the chances of ceasefire are not more than 49 percent. Both seem to be proving right. Over the last few days instead of any positive move towards obtaining conditions conducive for ceasefire the situation on the ground has markedly deteriorated. While Moscow hasn't stopped pounding away at the anti-Assad rebel positions Ankara has bombed what it called the PKK-backed Kurdish YPG combatants as they were marching on to Aleppo under the Russian air cover near the Turkish border. And Saudi Arabia too announced it has deployed its warplanes at the famous Turkish Incirlik airbase.
Four years on, the single-purpose revolt against President Bashr al-Assad has morphed into a multi-front war, threatening to explode into a much wider conflict in the region and revive the Cold War. Washington wants Moscow to target Islamic State positions and spare the 'moderate' rebels. But Moscow has its own agenda in Syria. Under the cover of targeting the Islamic State and al Qaeda-affiliated Al-Nusra Front positions, the Russian planes have been bombing the pro-Saudi anti-Assad rebel positions and thus help Assad forces to retrieve the territory it had lost to the rebels. That is unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies. From their perspective, the crisis in Syria has to come to be a serious threat to the balance of power and influence in the Middle East. According to them, while the Russian bombing is aimed at hitting and destroying the pro-Saudi rebels' positions their regional rival power, Iran, is at the back of President al-Assad with both men and materials. To them the conflict in Syria is no more country-specific.
The kingdom is therefore duly worried and resultantly is prepared to join the fray, as it launches the extensive military manoeuvre, codenamed "Thunder of the North". According to a report in the official Saudi news agency SPA, around 20 countries, including Pakistan, have gathered in northern Saudi Arabia for the "most important" military exercise involving "ground, air and naval forces" to send a "clear message" that Riyadh and its allies "stand united in confronting all challenges and preserving peace and stability in the region". The question whether exercise is the follow-up of the 35-state coalition announced by the kingdom last December has no clear answer. Pakistan had then announced that while it is fully committed to the territorial integrity of Saudi Arabia in no way would it land its troops' boots anywhere out of the kingdom. But now the situation is that Saudi forces won't be shy of sending troops into Syria along with Pakistan's another very close ally, Turkey. It was a surprise to all in Pakistan, including the Foreign Office that we are a member of 35-member anti-Yemen coalition. Barring a few quarters who may be in know we are once again surprised over joining the major strategic military exercise. It is about time that the government clarified its position. It is important that while we espouse opposition to regime-change moves and don't like to land our boots out of Pakistan the "Thunder of North" has the in-built fuse to explode into a war. What will we then do?
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