Soft wheat exports from the European Union should fall next season but then remain stable at a relatively strong level until the end of the 2015-2025 period, the European Commission said on Wednesday. In data released at the EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, it pegged EU soft wheat exports at 26.8 million tonnes in 2016/17, down from 27.9 million expected in the current 2015/16 season, and then remaining relatively stable to reach 26.5 million in 10 years time.
A level of exports of around 26 million tonnes is high compared with volumes seen during the previous decade. Although exports surpassed 30 million tonnes in 2013/14 and 2014/15, they stayed at between 11 and 23 million tonnes between 2005/06 and 2010/2011. The strong pace of EU wheat exports in recent years has been mainly supported by a weak euro making prices more competitive on world markets.
"We should maintain the strong exports we have seen in recent years," Koen Dillen, agriculture analyst at the Commission, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference, adding that he expected EU exports to remain strong on its key Mediterranean export markets. EU barley exports in 2025 would be at 8.7 million tonnes, down from 9.0 million this year but above an average 8.6 million for 2010-2015. It was unclear whether China, which has boosted sorghum and barley imports for feed use, would maintain its import pace but Dillen said barley was less likely to see volumes drop than sorghum if China was to cut volumes because China was also interested in malting barley.
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