The Philippines is set to miss its 2015 target for rice output after dry weather hurt the first-half harvest, raising the prospect of increased imports to boost stocks ahead of forecast stronger El Nino weather conditions. Unmilled rice output this year is forecast to hit 18.86 million tonnes, the country's statistics agency said on Wednesday, below both last year's record harvest of 18.97 million tonnes and a government target of 20.08 million tonnes.
The Philippines is already one of the world's biggest rice importers and its state grains procurement agency has been given permission to import an extra 250,000 tonnes this year if El Nino drought conditions worsen and hurt local output. Additional demand from the Philippines should be welcomed by top rice exporters Vietnam and Thailand, which have bulging stockpiles.
The Philippines procurement agency, the National Food Authority (NFA), has already purchased 750,000 tonnes this year via government-to-government deals with its two Southeast Asian neighbours. The local weather bureau this month said El Nino dry weather conditions may intensify in coming months, with below normal rainfall likely to persist this month in some central and southern provinces and even in the major rice-growing provinces of Cagayan and Isabela in the north.
The Philippines' rice harvest in the first half reached 8.32 million tonnes, down 0.7 percent from last year, but above a government forecast of 8.27 million tonnes, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said in a report. Farms in central and southern Philippines, hit by drought, suffered "significant reductions" in rice output, the PSA said. "Palay (paddy rice) crop in some irrigated areas were totally damaged by dry spell during reproductive stage in Bukidnon, while in Lanao del Norte some areas were not planted due to insufficient water supply," it said, referring to two badly hit provinces. Rice output in the second half is forecast to drop 0.5 percent to 10.54 million tonnes, the PSA said. Global rice prices are expected to surge by 10 percent to 20 percent in the next few months as the El Nino grips top producers in Asia.
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