Boosting regional connectivity and trade depends a great deal on healthy Indo-Pak relations. Yet, the likelihood of an Indo-Pak diplomatic breakthrough is slim at best. But, an opportunity may be presenting itself, as India is confronting the limits of its so-called ‘muscular’ foreign policy and China is emerging as a “benign broker” in regional affairs.
Perhaps it was Donald Trump’s election in 2016 that put paid to India’s hopes of becoming a dominant player in the South Asia region. Just prior to Trump’s election, the Modi government had firmly placed itself in the American orbit under a supportive Obama administration. There were high hopes of deeper economic and defence cooperation, even as US relationship with Pakistan went downhill.
Right on cue, during this period (2015-16), the Modi government started upping the pressure on Pakistan. Indian diplomacy seemed to waste no opportunity in casting Pakistan as a pariah state, even as Indian military intensified its crackdown in Kashmir. During successive state elections, anti-Pakistan slogans were used by the ruling party to gain support. India’s hostilities with China also simmered, leading last year to the border standoff at Doklam and India’s boycott of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.
An uneasy calm followed Trump’s election. But a year and a half of erratic, extractive behaviour later, Trump doesn’t offer India a rosy outlook in D.C. He regularly reminds India of its high duties on American products, bracketing it among the likes of EU and China that run high trade-surplus with the US. Trump ripped up the Iran nuclear deal, dealing a blow to India’s strategic relationship with Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia. High-skilled Indian workers are among the most affected by Trump’s restrictive immigration policies. Washington is now also objecting to India’s purchase of Russian air-defence systems.
As America’s European allies are now discovering, it hurts a country’s strategic calculus when Trump is willing to cut a deal with anyone, be it friend or foe, democrat or autocrat. Now India looks to be in a bit of a jam. Despite assurances by the US establishment, Trump’s America doesn’t look so reliable anymore. Worse, it is demanding concessions on trade, forcing India to retaliate in kind and risking Trump’s wrath.
Perhaps realizing that it needs to bide its time, India has had a seeming shift in tone lately. This year, PM Modi has taken several steps in warming up to China, with a focus on economic development. The Chinese side has reciprocated the gestures towards rapprochement, hoping for “everlasting friendship, mutually beneficial cooperation and common development”. This patch-up allows China to remain focused on US belligerence.
Despite continued border skirmishes, Pakistan and India have recently expressed their desire, at the highest level, to resolve bilateral issues through dialogue. China has hinted towards mediating such a dialogue via a trilateral forum. India doesn’t look enthusiastic about the idea. But the forum of SCO can be instrumental for the two countries to narrow their differences.
Putting differences aside, key powers in South Asia can normalize relations and take the region towards shared prosperity. Much depends on whether Modi goes for a re-set with Pakistan the same way it has with China. Local politics won’t be a hindrance: there is a broad political consensus in Pakistan over dialogue with India; and the Modi regime looks set to get re-elected next year. Instead of depending on a faraway, fickle friend, India will do well to improve ties within the region, and start that process soon.
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