Israel’s attacks on Iran: Pakistan govt may fall short of Rs1,161bn PL target

ISLAMABAD: The federal government may fall short of its Rs 1,161 billion petroleum levy (PL) target on petroleum products, primarily due to the escalating oil prices both globally and domestically due to Israel’s attacks on Iran.

On Friday, a few hours after Israel launched its attacks on Iran, petrol price rose by $1.98 per BBL from $71.8118 per BBL to $73.79 per BBL and HSD by $2.54 per BBL from $76.1427 per BBL to $78.68 per BBL. Motorists may witness an increase in the price of petrol by Rs 4.38 per litre and high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs 5.02 per litre starting June 16, 2025.

The premium on petrol was raised from $77.19 per BBL to $79.35 per BBL or $2.16 per BBL; whereas, the premium on HSD is the same at $3.25 per BBL.

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As per estimates the cost of petrol has risen by Rs 3.98 per litre from Rs 137.02 to Rs 141 per litre and HSD from Rs 140.92 to Rs 145.58, or Rs 4.66 per litre.

Customs duty is projected to increase from Rs 14.20 to Rs 14.56 per litre on HSD and Rs 13.70 per litre to Rs 14.10 per litre.

The US average conversion rate is projected to increase from Rs 282.20 to Rs 282.49.

This price excludes Pakistan State Oil (PSO) adjustments on both petrol and HSD. In case government allows these adjustments, the price of both petroleum products will rise further.

For outgoing fiscal year, the government has projected total collections of Rs 1,161billion PL against budgeted Rs 1,281 billion. In the first nine months (July-March) 2024-25, the government collected only Rs 834 billion - 71 percent of revised PL estimates.

The rising fuel prices will further effect fuel consumption which in turn may result in shortfall of the 2025-26 budgeted PL collections on petroleum products of Rs 1.4 trillion, market experts projected.

Since March 16, 2025, the government has collected an additional Rs 18.02 per litre PL on petrol and Rs 17 per litre on HSD by abolishing maximum limit of PL of Rs 60 per litre through an ordinance. An official of Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) on the condition of anonymity said that additional collection would help the government collect Rs 90 billion quarterly and Rs 300 billion yearly based on current consumption.

The Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded a 10 percent year-on-year (YoY) sales growth in May 2025, reaching a total of 1.53 million tons, marking a 5 percent month-on-month (MoM) increase as well.

The OGRA will gather data on international oil prices, exchange rates, and other relevant factors for last 15 days that affect the cost of petroleum products starting from June 16, 2025. The Finance Division will announce the final price on June 15.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025