Oil prices rise on stalled US-Iran talks and tight fuel markets

NEW YORK/LONDON: Oil prices rose on Wednesday and were on track for significant monthly gains on stalled US-Iran peace talks and tightening US fuel markets.

The Brent November futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, was up $1.12, or 1%, at $103.71 a barrel at 10:50 a.m. EDT. The more active December contract was up $2.65, or 2.8%, at $98.81. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.98, or 2.2%, at $91.98.

Brent is headed for a monthly gain of around 14%, its biggest since July, while WTI is on track for about a 5.5% rise.

Qatar said on Tuesday it hopes that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can lead to a breakthrough.

However, US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited US officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for “concrete” steps by Tehran on its nuclear programme.

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On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

Over the past five days, the 10-day average for total oil exports has held at 20.5 million bpd, or 89% of 2025 levels, JPMorgan estimated.

OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

“Recovering crude flows should temper supply-driven price pressures, although persistent product shortages and elevated freight costs are likely to keep the broader energy market tight,” analysts at Japanese bank MUFG said.

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The White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices, according to two people familiar with the effort.

Shrinking US fuel inventories supported oil prices, even as crude stocks grew.

“Lower refining activity ushered in draws for both distillates and gasoline,” said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler. “Refining activity should gradually climb going forward, helping to protect product inventories from dropping to further lowly levels.”

US gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles - including diesel and heating oil - dropped by 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

US crude inventories, meanwhile, rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 264,000-barrel draw.

The spread between the two crude oil benchmarks also stretched to its widest in four months as traders monitored potential plans by the US to restrict diesel exports, which could create an oversupply in the US market and lead refiners there to process less crude.

Trump is considering allowing sales of red-dyed diesel, instead of an export ban, to offer some price relief to consumers ahead of the November midterm elections.