Pakistan inflation clocks in at 10.3% in September 2026

Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 10.3% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in September 2026, up from 11.1% recorded in August, as shown by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Thursday.

The consumer price index (CPI) was recorded at 5.8% in September 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.3% in September 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.2% in the previous month and an increase of 2.1% in September 2025.

Urban CPI inflation increased by 10.1% on a year-on-year basis in September 2026, as compared to an increase of 10.4% in the previous month and an increase of 5.7% in September 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.3% in September 2026 as compared to an increase of 0.9% in the previous month and an increase of 1.6% in September 2025.

Rural CPI inflation increased by 10.5% on a year-on-year basis in September 2026 as compared to an increase of 12.2% in the previous month and an increase of 5.9% observed in September 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 1.2% in September 2026 as compared to an increase of 1.6% in the previous month and an increase of 2.8% in September 2025.

During the first quarter of FY27, CPI inflation stood at 10.2% as compared to 4.3% in the same period last year.

Government expectations

A day ago, the Finance Division (FD) in its monthly Economic Update & Outlook for September expected inflation to remain elevated in the near term, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation projected at 10-11% in September 2026, while its subsequent path will depend largely on international oil prices.

The report said higher government current spending and interest payments pushed the consolidated fiscal deficit to Rs596.6 billion in July 2026.

Elevated global oil prices remain the principal risk to the outlook, affecting purchasing power, input costs and the import bill, it said.

The report noted that the Prime Minister’s Fuel Relief Scheme directs support to lower-income households through a digital delivery system without cutting the petroleum levy. This protects purchasing power while preserving fiscal discipline, it said.

Experts expectations

Earlier, a number of brokerage houses expected Pakistan’s consumer price inflation to ease to around 10% in September, but rising fuel and electricity costs are expected to keep price pressures elevated and complicate the central bank’s policy outlook.

September inflation was projected at between 9.9% and 10.5% year-on-year, according to estimates from Topline Securities, Ismail Iqbal Securities, Abbasi and Company and Growth Securities.