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LAHORE: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of the country during the monsoon.

During the monsoon season 2024, it said maximum departure of the monsoon spells would be over upper Punjab and lower Sindh. On the other hand, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan may get nearly normal rainfall whereas most parts of Balochistan may receive slightly above normal rainfall during the season.

The PMD has anticipated that the neutral phase of climate indicators such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will persist during the season with a tendency to shift towards the negative phase (La Nina) at the end of the season. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecasted to persist in a positive phase throughout the season.

Nationwide, it said, the daytime maximum temperature is expected to be nearly normal. However, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience warmer than normal maximum temperature during the season. Night time temperatures are likely to exceed normal levels across most regions of the country, with marked deviation anticipated over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and south-western Balochistan.

Accordingly, high temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, increasing river flow.

Based on recent weather conditions, the PMD added that a considerable amount of soil moisture is currently available in the fields. However, rising temperatures may reduce moisture content before the onset of monsoon.

Therefore, farmers are advised to irrigate according to the needs of their crops.

The forecast further pointed out that the daytime temperature is likely to remain above normal all over the country during start of the forecast period but the expected rains towards the end of the season will normalize the high temperature. In addition, strong winds, dust storms, and gusts are highly likely in the season.

The extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas of the major rivers of the country are likely to generate riverine floods.

Flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent areas of koh-e-Suleman and plains of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall events during the season.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

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