ISLAMABAD: The plains parts of the country will receive normal rainfall while the hilly parts above normal during the ongoing month, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) said.
According to a weather advisory issued here on Tuesday by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the NDMA, the authorities have warned of rain, dust-storm, thunderstorm, hailstorm, and heat waves across the country due to the weather impact taking place during April.
In light of the Positive Phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to make a transition towards a Neutral Phase along with the prevailing Neutral Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the NDMA Tech Team and the PMD have predicted that there would be an overall tendency towards Near Normal Rainfall (against 30 years average from 1991 to 2020) in most parts of the country.
However, the Northern Half of Pakistan including Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Northern Punjab, and the State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) are expected to receive slightly above normal rainfall during April 2024.
“Furthermore, it is expected that the daytime maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to slightly above normal (against 30 years average from 1991 to 2020) while, warmer than normal minimum temperatures are expected country-wide with the maximum positive departure in temperature (minimum and maximum) is expected over northern parts of the country, especially northern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (Chitral, Dir, Kohistan, Shangla, Swat, and Malakand), Gilgit-Baltistan (all districts) and State of AJ&K (Neelum),” the NDMA said.
Against the predicted hydro-meteorological conditions which are expected to prevail across the country the following impacts are expected to affect respective parts of Pakistan during April 2024.
Temperature gradients expected across the country may cause strong winds, dust-storms, thunderstorms, and hailstorms. It is expected that increased temperatures may lead to heatwave conditions in plain areas of the country, especially in Punjab and Interior Sindh.
Furthermore, urban areas of the country may face heatwave conditions due to an urban heat islands effect, whereas, increased temperatures in northern Pakistan especially in mountainous areas of KP, G-B, and the State of AJ&K may lead to avalanches in at-risk/vulnerable snowbound valleys.
In light of the increased temperatures across the northern parts of the country, there is an increased risk of GLOF incidents vulnerable valleys of northern KP, G-B, and State of AJ&K.
It is likely to increased-rainfall in northern half of Pakistan, including all districts of KP (with emphasis northern part), northern Punjab, G-B, and State of AJ&K may lead to flash flooding and land sliding in vulnerable/at-risk mountainous and hilly areas.
Irrigation water would be required at regular intervals for seasonal vegetables and newly sown Kharif crops and pollen season is expected to come to an end by mid-April 2024.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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