Most Asian currencies eased against the greenback on Monday, while equities were range-bound, as market focus shifts towards central bank meetings in other countries this week after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended eight years of negative interest rates.
The MSCI International Emerging Market Currency Index slipped 0.1% to hit its lowest level since March 6, while the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell as much as 0.8%, hitting its lowest since March 7.
The BOJ took the spotlight for the day after it decided to end its negative interest rate policy and abolished its yield control curve, marking a landmark shift away from its huge stimulus programme.
This was Japan’s first interest rate hike since 2007.
The Japanese yen slipped as much as 0.6%.
“With wage growth peaking this year, we still expect inflation to fall below the BOJ’s target by the end of the year so the Bank won’t feel the need to lift its policy rate any further,” Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, said.
The South Korean won depreciated as much as 0.4% against the greenback to hit its lowest level since Feb 20.
Indian rupee falls on weak Asian currencies
The Taiwanese dollar followed suit, slipping as much as 0.3% to hit its lowest level Nov 20, 2023.
Amongst equities, Seoul stocks were the biggest laggards in the region, slipping as much as 1.5%.
Philippine stocks, on the other hand, advanced as much as 0.6%.
Traders are also awaiting policy decision from central bank officials in the US, Taiwan, Indonesia, Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Mexico, among others, later in the week.
Most of the central banks are expected to hold rates steady, with the market’s attention on policymakers’ updated interest rate projections for the rest of the year and commentary.
Traders are pricing in a 99.0% certainty that the US Federal Reserve will stand pat at its March meeting on Wednesday and a 55.2% chance of a rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Eugene Leow, senior rates strategist at DBS said there is room for calibrated rates cut in the second half of the year as the Fed gets more confident with the inflation trajectory.
“This will also set the tone for better sentiment towards EM assets. EM central banks like BI (Bank Indonesia) may also feel more confident about cutting rates,” Both the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah slipped as much as 0.2% to hit their lowest level since March 6.
Kuala Lumpur stocks fell as much as 0.5%, while stocks in Jakarta jumped as much as 0.8%.
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