MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to have a quiet opening on Monday amid a decline in Asian peers and expectations that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will defend the currency. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open little changed from 83.34 on Friday.
The rupee declined to a lifetime low of 83.42 on Friday in a session that was marred by a technical incident in the interbank order matching system.
The RBI likely stepped in to keep a lid on the rupee’s decline and its volatility.
While USD/INR “managed to move past the big” 83.30 resistance, the way Friday’s session played out in the last hour, “you have a sense that a large move higher is unlikely,” an FX trader at a bank said.
“Think it will be a quiet session, the tone for which will be set at open.” Asian currencies were mostly lower while the dollar index , having managed a bit of a recovery, was at 105.80.
US yields inched higher to begin the week that will see the release of key US inflation data.
Data out on Tuesday is expected to show that headline prices rose by just 0.1% month-on-month in October, thanks to lower energy prices, while the more important core measure likely rose by 0.3% on-month and by 4.1% on-year.
India rupee falls to lifetime low
Core inflation readings, which are likely to come in higher, may keep “markets on edge” to an extent, ING Bank said in a note.
However, expect to see slowing housing rents exert a bigger influence over the coming months – and this should lead to the US consumer price inflation slowing to 2%, the Federal Reserve’s target, ING Bank added.
Meanwhile, the market paid little attention to a Moody’s announcement late on Friday that it had lowered its outlook on the US credit rating to “negative” from “stable”.
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