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Total power generation in Pakistan witnessed a significant decline of 23% on a yearly basis to 10,010 GWh in April 2023, compared to 12,960 GWh in same period last year.

“Power generation down by 23% YoY during April 2023, the highest decline since available data (Jul’12),” said Arif Habib Limited (AHL) on Friday.

On a monthly basis, power generation improved 15%, up from 8,741 GWh in March 2023.

Meanwhile, the total cost of generating electricity in the country remained unchanged at Rs10.24 KWh in April 2023, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the cost of power generation increased by 25%, as compared to Rs8.22 KWh registered in March.

Electricity generation cost falls 11% year-on-year in March

“On a MoM basis, the increase in fuel cost is witnessed mainly due to a decline in nuclear, and hydel-based generation along with a 41% and 9% MoM rise in coal and furnace oil (FO)-based cost of generation,” said AHL.

When looking at the first ten months of the 2022-23 financial year, power generation decreased by 10% YoY to 103,593 GWh compared to 114,660 GWh a year prior.

Moreover, the cost of power generation during the first ten months of the ongoing fiscal year was up 13%, from Rs8.2 in 10MFY22 to Rs9.3 in 10MFY23.

Data on generation mix revealed that electricity generation decline on a yearly basis was led by hydel 1,872 GWh, and Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) 221 GWh, which decreased by 22% and 86%, respectively.

Power generation from gas and Re-gasified Liquid Natural Gas (RLNG) sources stood at 1,189 GWh and 2,418 GWh respectively, showing a decrease of 7% and 4%, respectively, on a yearly basis.

In April, nuclear and RLNG emerged as the leading sources of power generation, accounting for 43% of the generation mix combined.

Moreover, electricity generation from renewable sources including solar improved by 44% on a yearly basis to 126 GWh, while generation from other renewable sources such as wind declined by 31% on a yearly basis to 323 GWh.

Comments

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Kashif ALI May 19, 2023 03:20pm
1 important fact is missing from the above report. The decline owes it to Climate change massively when compared YoY. Last year 2022, March was one of the hottest month. Summer & temp. rise started as early as 10th March and increased incessantly. April just followed it more and then almost whole summer. This year 2023, the same heat and temperature rise did not follow the last year pattern until the end of April 2023. Temperatures remained low, heat intensity far less when compared with SPLY. So, industrial consumption being aside, Domestic demand was very low. Hence, the Generation was on lower side irrespective of energy mix. Last year, load shedding was started much earlier in March. But this year, there has been no or little load shedding so far. My home' energy bill are same but consumption this year has been 33% less than last year. Having said that, Electricity generation had much to do with climate change and not Economic conditions as much as being propagated.
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SAMIR SARDANA May 19, 2023 04:16pm
CAPTION SAYS FUEL COST 10.2/KWH AND THEN NEWS SAYS THAT total cost of generating electricity in the country remained unchanged at Rs10.24 KWh in April 2023, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. EVEN ASSUMING NIL FUEL COST FOR HYDEL,RENEW AND NPP, HOW IS 10.24/KW,POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THESE SOURCES HAVE ONLY FIXED COSTS AND SO THE "TOTAL COST" SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER ! THEN WITH THE FLOODS IN PAKISTAN - Y HAS HYDEL POWER CRASHED - RESERVOIRS MUST BE FULL, AND WITH FISH ! WHY NOT LIFT THE GATES TO MAKE POWER AND STOP IMPORTED FUEL ! ELECT GEN IS DOWN MEANS MANUFACTURING IS DOWN = DEMAND DESTRUCTION = LESSER FORMAL IMPORTS = GOOD NEWS FOR SBP TO MANAGE PKR ! AND THERE ARE SHIORTAGES IN PAKISTAN ! THAT IS THE MAGIC ! ALSO, SS HAS LOWERED FUEL RATES - BUT NOT THE POWER TARRIFFS WHOSE VARIABLE COSTS ARE LOWER THAN THE PEAK COAL AND GAS RATES A YEAR AGO ! WIN -WIN FOR ALL ! SAMIR SARDANA
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SAMIR SARDANA May 19, 2023 04:18pm
@Kashif ALI, POWER GENERATION CAN BE ANALYSED AS LT/HR OR CONSUMER/INDUSTRAL/ENTERTAINMENT DEMAND AND PEAK LOAD AND NORMAL DEMAND THAT WILL NAIL THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE .SAMIR SARDANA
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Tulukan Mairandi May 19, 2023 05:20pm
Obviously. People are going back to dark ages. The country is progressing backwards.
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TimeToMovveOn May 19, 2023 06:18pm
The sad thing about decline is that you still have to make capacity payments under CPEC to china. Whether or not you use electricity. CPEC would have been a great project, if its resources were actually used. Now the child built plants are not operating at full capacity, you still have to pay as if they were working at full capacity, and you still have to pay back the loans and interest.
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Kashif ALI May 19, 2023 07:43pm
@SAMIR SARDANA, My emphasis was to raise a missing point in the above analysis which is the impact of Climate Change. I did not intend to analyze other aspects of above figure. I'm a Power sector professional and keep a close eye on above figures and their causes and impacts. Last point is that it is monthly generation analysis so, other factors like demand-pull or Cost-push are not that impactful as compared to Climate Change.
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