- Decline led by lower demand of furnace oil and slowdown in activity in Ramadan
Sales of total petroleum products clocked in at 1.11 million tons in March 2023, a decline of over 39% year-on-year, mainly due to lower demand of Furnace Oil (FO) for power generation and slowdown in economic activity due to Ramadan, said experts.
“This is the lowest monthly sales number in 35 months,” said Topline Securities in its note.
FO sales nosedived by 70% YoY in March 2023, amounting to 0.09 million tons, data released by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) showed.
Sale of MS (petrol), fell 28% YoY, clocking in at 0.56 million tons in March. Volume of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) plunged by 43% YoY, settling at 0.40 million in March 2023.
On a month-on-month basis, POL products offtake witnessed a drop of 9% during March. Volumes of MS inched up slightly by 1%, whereas HSD and FO registered a decline of 17% and 28% MoM, respectively.
During the first nine months of FY23, sales of total petroleum products dropped by 21% YoY to 12.80 million tons compared to 16.26 million tons in the same period last year.
Product-wise data showed a decline in all categories; the offtake of MS, HSD and FO settled at 5.59 million tons, 4.82 million tons and 1.79 million tons, respectively.
“Higher inflationary environment, particularly the prices of MS and HSD have had a major impact on demand,” said Topline Securities.
PSO’s offtake depicted a drop of 44% YoY in March 2023, which was majorly contributed by a decrease in sales of FO by 91% YoY, while MS sales registered a decline of 26% YoY. HSD sales of PSO also plunged 45% YoY.
Similarly, sales of Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) and Shell Pakistan Limited (SHEL) decreased by 30% and 38% YoY respectively, due to a fall in sales of all products.
However, Hascol Petroleum Limited (HASCOL) sales witnessed an increase of 237% YoY.
“We expect FY23 oil sales to drop by 20-25% YoY, mainly due to overall slowdown in the economy. Demand will continue to remain muted due to elevated inflation levels and inability of government to provide any relief in oil product prices,” said Topline.