SINGAPORE: US oil may test a resistance at $69.84 per barrel, a break above which could lead to a gain to $70.87. The current bounce has extended very close to the peak of wave 4.

This is a warning signal that the bounce will be completed soon. However, until oil breaks the support of $68.22, the completion will not be confirmed.

The basic assumption has to be maintained that the bounce would extend further.

On the daily chart, the hammer on Monday has been confirmed by the following white candlestick as a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a further bounce.

The reversal is regarded as being against the short downtrend from the March 7 high of $80.94.

US oil may retest resistance at $67.49

The bigger trend from $123.68 remains firm. The downtrend may resume upon the completion of the bounce around $71.76. A flag and a projection analysis on wave C from $123.68 work together to suggest a target zone of $57-$62.89.

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